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工程设计学报
工程设计学报  2014, Vol. 21 Issue (1): 27-31    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn. 1006-754X.2014.01.005
保质设计     
在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性分析
魏宗平
宝鸡文理学院 机电工程系,陕西 宝鸡 721016
Time-dependent non-probability reliability analysis of corroded pipeline in service
WEI Zong-ping
Department of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Baoji University Arts & Sciences， Baoji 721016, China
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摘要： 腐蚀失效是压力管道失效的主要形式之一，研究腐蚀管道的可靠性具有重要理论意义和应用价值.在对腐蚀管道可靠性分析时，概率可靠性模型和模糊可靠性模型对于数据信息的要求较高.而在掌握不确定性信息很少情况下，为了充分利用管道的不确定性信息弥补原始数据的不足，可将腐蚀管道可靠性分析中的材料屈服强度、管道直径、缺陷深度和操作压力等不确定参数视为区间变量，基于区间模型建立一种在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性模型，给出了腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测的简便方法.结合工程实例计算与分析，表明了文中所提出方法的可行性和合理性，并在此基础上，分析了管道的壁厚、缺陷深度、实际压力和腐蚀速率这些区间变量的不同变异系数对非概率可靠性指标的影响，分析结果表明非概率可靠性指标对管道壁厚的变异系数最为敏感.
关键词： 腐蚀管道;  区间变量;  动态非概率可靠性;  剩余寿命    
Abstract: Corrosion is one of the primary failure mode of pressurized pipelines. Research on reliability of the corroded pipelines has important theoretical significance and application value. Adequate data is necessary for probabilistic reliability model and fuzzy reliability model used to analyze the reliability of corroded pipelines. In case of insufficient information was available，the uncertain parameters of yield strength，pipeline diameter，defect depths，operating pressure and so on were described as interval variables to make up the gap by using the uncertain information of the corroded pipelines well. Timedependent non-probability reliability model of the corroded pipeline in service was established based on the interval model. A simple method for the remaining life prediction of the corroded pipelines was given. A numerical example had been used to illustrate the proposed method. The result shows that the proposed method is feasible and reasonable and procticable. Finally a sensitivity analysis was carried out on interval variables involved in the problem. The effects of the coefficient of variation of pipeline wall thickness，defect depths，operating pressures and corrosion velocity on non-probability reliability index of the corroded pipelines were evaluated. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the non-probability reliability index is the most sensitive to the coefficient of variation of pipeline wall thickness interval variable.
Key words: corroded pipeline    interval variables    time-dependent non-probability reliability    remaining life
出版日期: 2014-02-28
基金资助:

陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(09JK333)；宝鸡文理学院重点科研计划项目(ZK10142)．
作者简介: 魏宗平(1971-)，男，陕西扶风人，副教授，硕士，从事机械结构可靠性与优化设计、产品性能可靠性分析等研究,E-mail:weizping@163.com.
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引用本文:

魏宗平. 在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性分析[J]. 工程设计学报, 2014, 21(1): 27-31.

WEI Zong-ping. Time-dependent non-probability reliability analysis of corroded pipeline in service. Chinese Journal of Engineering Design, 2014, 21(1): 27-31.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/CN/10.3785/j.issn. 1006-754X.2014.01.005    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/CN/Y2014/V21/I1/27

[1] 魏宗平,梁磊. 梁结构刚度动态非概率可靠性分析[J]. 工程设计学报, 2012, 19(2): 86-90.