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高校应用数学学报  2018, Vol. 33 Issue (2): 179-190    
    
一类新的位置不变极值指数估计
刘维奇$^{1;3}$, 梁珊珊$^2$
1. 山西大学管理与决策研究中心, 山西太原030006;
2. 山西大学数学科学学院, 山西太原030006;
3. 山西财经大学财政金融学院, 山西太原030006
A new kind of location invariant extreme value index estimator
LIU Wei-qi$^{1;3}$, LIANG Shan-shan$^2$
1. Research Center for Management and Decision Making, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006,China;
2. School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China;
3. Faculty of Finance and Banking, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006,China
 全文: PDF(306 KB)  
摘要: 重尾分布可以很好地解释资产价格, 收入分配, 水文地质, 社交媒体等经济,
自然与社会现象, 准确估计极值指数成为重尾分布应用的关键技术,
1975年Hill估计的提出开辟了极值指数估计的先河,
直到今天极值指数的估计仍是重尾建模的重点.
为克服已有估计中存在的位置变化和渐近性的不足,
借用统计量$M_{n}^{(\alpha)}(k_{0},k)$的渐近展式提出了一类新的位置不变极值指数估计(NLIE),
在二阶正则变化条件下研究了其渐近展式以及阈值的最优选取,
通过Monte-Carlo对NLIE与Fraga
Alves所提的经典位置不变估计量$\hat{\gamma}_{n}^{H}(k_{0},k)$进行了模拟比较.
结果表明, NLIE的效果更好.
关键词: 重尾分布 极值指数位置不变 正则变化 渐近性质    
Abstract:

Heavy-tailed distribution can well explain the economic, natural and social phenomena such as asset prices, income
 distribution, hydro-geology, social media, etc.
 Accurate estimation of extreme value index is a key technique for application of heavy-tailed
 distribution. The Hill estimator, introduced in 1975, which opened a precedent of estimating extreme value index, is still
 the focus of heavy-tailed modeling up to now. In order to overcome the shortcomings of the location variation and
 asymptotic behavior of the existing estimators, borrowing the asymptotic expansion of statistic $M_{n}^{(\alpha)}(k_{0},k)$,
  this paper proposes a new kind of location invariant extreme value index estimator (NLIE) and studies its asymptotic expansion under second order regular variation. The optimal choice of threshold is discussed as well. The NLIE is compared with the classical location invariant estimator $\hat{\gamma}_{n}^{H}(k_{0},k)$ by Monte-Carlo. The results show that NlIE behaves better than $\hat{\gamma}_{n}^{H}(k_{0},k)$.

Key words: heavy-tailed distribution         extreme value index         location invariant         regular variation         asymptotic property
出版日期: 2018-07-26
CLC:  O213  
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引用本文:

刘维奇, 梁珊珊. 一类新的位置不变极值指数估计[J]. 高校应用数学学报, 2018, 33(2): 179-190.

LIU Wei-qi, LIANG Shan-shan. A new kind of location invariant extreme value index estimator. Applied Mathematics A Journal of Chinese Universities, 2018, 33(2): 179-190.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/amjcua/CN/        http://www.zjujournals.com/amjcua/CN/Y2018/V33/I2/179

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