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ZJUS-A
Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A (Applied Physics & Engineering)  2016, Vol. 17 Issue (2): 115-129    DOI: 10.1631/jzus.A1500164
Articles     
A hybrid EMD-AR model for nonlinear and non-stationary wave forecasting
Wen-yang Duan, Li-min Huang, Yang Han, De-tai Huang
Department of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
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Abstract  Accurate wave forecasting with a couple of hours of warning time offers improvements in safety for maritime operation-related activities. Autoregressive (AR) model is an efficient and highly adaptive approach for wave forecasting. However, it is based on linear and stationary theory and hence has limitations in forecasting nonlinear and non-stationary waves. Inspired by the capability of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) technique in handling nonlinear and non-stationary signals, this paper describes the development of a hybrid EMD-AR model for nonlinear and non-stationary wave forecasting. The EMD-AR model was developed by coupling an AR model with the EMD technique. Nonlinearity and non-stationarity were overcome by decomposing the wave time series into several simple components for which the AR model is suitable. The EMD-AR model was implemented using measured significant wave height data from the National Data Buoy Center, USA. Prediction results from various locations consistently show that the hybrid EMD-AR model is superior to the AR model. This demonstrates that the EMD technique is effective in processing nonlinear and non-stationary waves.

Key words： Wave forecast      Nonlinear and non-stationary      Autoregressive (AR) model      Empirical mode decomposition (EMD)      EMD-AR model     
Received: 01 June 2015      Published: 02 February 2016
CLC:  U66  
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Wen-yang Duan
Li-min Huang
Yang Han
De-tai Huang
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Wen-yang Duan, Li-min Huang, Yang Han, De-tai Huang. A hybrid EMD-AR model for nonlinear and non-stationary wave forecasting. Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A (Applied Physics & Engineering), 2016, 17(2): 115-129.

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http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/zjus-a/10.1631/jzus.A1500164     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/zjus-a/Y2016/V17/I2/115

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