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ZJUS-A
Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A (Applied Physics & Engineering)  2015, Vol. 16 Issue (7): 562-576    DOI: 10.1631/jzus.A1500040
Civil and Mechanical Engineering     
A hybrid AR-EMD-SVR model for the short-term prediction of nonlinear and non-stationary ship motion
Wen-yang Duan, Li-min Huang, Yang Han, Ya-hui Zhang, Shuo Huang
Department of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China; Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Chinese Academy Science, Guangzhou 510640, China
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Abstract  Accurate and reliable short-term prediction of ship motions offers improvements in both safety and control quality in ship motion sensitive maritime operations. Inspired by the satisfactory nonlinear learning capability of a support vector regression (SVR) model and the strong non-stationary processing ability of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), this paper develops a hybrid autoregressive (AR)-EMD-SVR model for the short-term forecast of nonlinear and non-stationary ship motion. The proposed hybrid model is designed by coupling the SVR model with an AR-EMD technique, which employs an AR model in ends extension. In addition to the AR-EMD-SVR model, the linear AR model, non-linear SVR model, and hybrid EMD-AR model are also studied for comparison by using ship motion time series obtained from model testing in a towing tank. Prediction results suggest that the non-stationary difficulty in the SVR model is overcome by using the AR-EMD technique, and better predictions are obtained by the proposed AR-EMD-SVR model than other models.

Key words： Nonlinear and non-stationary ship motion      Short-term prediction      Empirical mode decomposition (EMD)      Support vector regression (SVR) model      Autoregressive (AR) model     
Received: 02 March 2015      Published: 03 July 2015
CLC:  U66  
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Wen-yang Duan
Li-min Huang
Yang Han
Ya-hui Zhang
Shuo Huang
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Wen-yang Duan, Li-min Huang, Yang Han, Ya-hui Zhang, Shuo Huang. A hybrid AR-EMD-SVR model for the short-term prediction of nonlinear and non-stationary ship motion. Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A (Applied Physics & Engineering), 2015, 16(7): 562-576.

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http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/zjus-a/10.1631/jzus.A1500040     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/zjus-a/Y2015/V16/I7/562

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