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浙江大学学报（理学版）
浙江大学学报（理学版）  2017, Vol. 44 Issue (3): 363-368,378    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.03.018
城市科学     
重大事件与政策调整对杭州市住房市场价量波动的影响
张凌, 常欣, 温海珍
浙江大学 建筑工程学院, 浙江 杭州 310058
The influence of significant events and control policies on price and volume in housing market of Hangzhou
ZHANG Ling, CHANG Xin, WEN Haizhen
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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摘要： 基于2004~2015年杭州市主城区新建商品住宅月度交易价格和成交套数数据，采用圆频率（circle-frequency CF）滤波和结构突变检验法，研究重大事件与政策调整对杭州市住房市场周期波动的影响.发现重大事件和政策导致房价序列及交易量序列出现周期拐点，并存在结构性断点，其中金融危机、“救市政策”与“新国十条”“新国五条”及其细化产生的限购令等调控政策对杭州主城区新建商品住宅价格和交易量影响最大，影响周期长、幅度大.后两者还与价格和交易量的结构突变点紧密相关.
关键词： 重大事件;  CF滤波;  结构突变检验;  金融危机;  调控政策    
Abstract: Using the circle-frequency and structural change test method, we studied the influence of significant events including financial crisis, bailout policies and control policies on the operation rules of cyclical fluctuations in the real estate market in Hangzhou. The results show that significant events and control policies lead to cyclical turning points and structural breakpoints of housing price series and trading volume series. Financial crisis, bailout policies, “New National Ten” and “New National Five” as well as its detailed housing restriction policy have great effect on housing price and trading volume. The influencing cycle is long, and the extent of effect is large. The last two factors are closely related to the breakpoints of housing price and trading volume.
Key words: significant events    circle-frequency    structural change test    economic crisis    control policy
收稿日期: 2016-10-11 出版日期: 2017-03-01
CLC:  F293.30  
通讯作者: 温海珍,ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2616-3683,E-mail:wenhaizhen@263.com.     E-mail: wenhaizhen@263.com
作者简介: 张凌(1972-),ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3864-2602,女,博士,副教授,主要从事房地产经济与管理研究,E-mail:zlcivil@163.com.
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引用本文:

张凌, 常欣, 温海珍. 重大事件与政策调整对杭州市住房市场价量波动的影响[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(3): 363-368,378.

ZHANG Ling, CHANG Xin, WEN Haizhen. The influence of significant events and control policies on price and volume in housing market of Hangzhou. Journal of Zhejiang University (Science Edition), 2017, 44(3): 363-368,378.

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https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.03.018    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2017/V44/I3/363

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