Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报（农业与生命科学版）
Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences)  2018, Vol. 44 Issue (1): 75-88    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9209.2017.05.222
Resourse utilization & environmental protection     
Water pollution risk simulation and prediction in a drinking water catchment
LI Dan1,2, LIANG Xinqiang1, WU Jiaping2*
1. College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; 2. Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316000, Zhejiang, China
Download: HTML ( )    PDF(2716KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      

Abstract  

Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed to analyze the main sources and patterns of eutrophic pollutants in Laohutan reservoir, located in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from Jan. 2010 to Apr. 2015. The situation of hydrology, water quality and economic benefit in the reservoir area under six management measures was simulated with scenario analysis. The results showed that the accuracy of daily runoff simulation was pretty good, with the percent bias (BIAS) below 20% (－17.57%-－0.63%), coefficient of determination (R2) greater than 0.75 (0.79-0.85), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) greater than 0.70 (0.71-0.86). The simulation of total nitrogen was relatively good (NSCE=0.39-0.58, R2=0.58-0.74, BIAS=－14.08%-7.18%), which met the requirements of the model. Therefore, the simulation results can reflect the hydrology and water quality changing rule of Laohutan reservoir. Compared to various hypothetical scenarios, the best water quality safety management measure was found to be promoting scientific fertilization. In conclusion, the SWAT model is applicable to simulate the runoff and agricultural nonpoint-source pollution in hilly area of western Zhejiang, and it is of scientific significance for hydrological simulation and nonpointsource pollution control in this area.

Key words： land use      drinking water      scenario analysis      soil and water assessment tool      nonpoint-source pollution     
Received: 22 May 2017      Published: 28 August 2017
CLC:  X 524  
Corresponding Authors: jw67@zju.edu.cn     E-mail: jw67@zju.edu.cn
Service
E-mail this article
Add to my bookshelf
Add to citation manager
E-mail Alert
RSS
Articles by authors
Cite this article:

LI Dan, LIANG Xinqiang, WU Jiaping. Water pollution risk simulation and prediction in a drinking water catchment. Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences), 2018, 44(1): 75-88.

URL:

http://www.zjujournals.com/agr/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9209.2017.05.222     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/agr/Y2018/V44/I1/75


水库型饮用水源地水环境模拟与预测

应用土壤水文评估模型（soil and water assessment tool, SWAT）分析浙江省湖州市水库型饮用水源地——老虎潭水库在2010 年1月—2015 年4月间水体富营养化污染物的主要来源及其作用模式。通过情景分析方法模拟6种管理措施下库区水文、水质安全情况及其经济效益。结果表明，径流量的模拟精度较高，模拟的偏差百分比（percent bias, BIAS）控制在20%以内（－17.57%～－0.63%），决定系数（coefficient of determination, R2）大于0.75（0.79～0.85），纳什效率系数（Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, NSCE）大于0.70（0.71～0.86）。总氮模拟验证结果较好（NSCE=0.39～0.58, R2=0.58～0.74, BIAS=－14.08%～7.18%），精度满足模型要求，能够反映老虎潭库区水文、水质变化规律。在对比各种假设情景的基础上，得出了最佳水质安全管理措施，认为推广科学施肥是削减污染物最有效的方法。综上表明，SWAT模型在太湖流域丘陵地区模拟径流量和农业面源污染具有较好的适用性，对该地区水文模拟和面源污染治理具有科学的指导意义。


关键词： 土壤水文评估模型,  情景分析,  饮用水,  非点源污染,  土地利用 
[1] SHI Ya, SHI Xiaofeng, ZHANG Yongjing, LIU Jingqing, CHENG Dongqing. Effects of drinking water distribution system on Vibrio amounts in biofilm[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences), 2016, 42(6): 665-670.
[2] Zhou Qixing, Teng Yong. Derivation methods of remediation criteria for contaminated soils under different land uses and analysis of their standard values[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences), 2015, 41(1): 89-100.
[3] WANG Xiaoxu, HUANG Jiaming, ZHANG Mingkui. Status and changes of soil fertility indices of stagnic anthrosols in Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences), 2012, 38(4): 429-437.