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Abstract Green development and macro-stability are not an either-or relationship, and most of the time, green transformation and macro-stable growth need to coexist. The economic society has different weight preferences for the two goals in different economic situations in different periods, that is, macro-control policies need to consider the synergy of the two goals. In this context, coordinating the relationship between green development and macro stability plays a vital role in the smooth transition of economic structure and the healthy and stable development of the long-term economy.
In this paper, we construct the rules of fiscal policy behavior, which focus on market factors and climate factors, and based on this, we expand the dynamic structure model with heterogeneous sectors, green development and macro-stability collaborative goals, and then adopt Bayesian method to estimate the model and conduct numerical simulation to investigate the optimization of fiscal policy behavior under different preferences of green development and macro-stability goals.
The innovation of this paper mainly lies in: on the one hand, it constructs a theoretical model of the nature of green finance, which can investigate the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy behavior to green development and macro-stability more deeply than previous empirical researches, and has certain reference value for subsequent related research. On the other hand, it is of great reference significance for the financial department to weigh the relationship between green development and macro-stability by simulating the optimization of fiscal policy behavior under the condition of camera choice between green development and macro-stability.
The research finds that: First, different fiscal policy behaviors have obvious differentiated effects on green development and macro-stability, and financial subsidy policy behaviors have greater regulatory effects on macro-stability, and have relatively long-term effects. Tax preferential policy behavior has a greater regulatory effect on green development, and has a relatively long-term effect. Second, different policy preference behaviors have obvious differentiated effects on green development and macro-stability. Green development is sensitive to climate factors and is increasing, which requires fiscal policy to have greater response weight to climate factors. Macro-stability is sensitive to market factors, and it is increasing, which requires fiscal policy to have greater reaction weight to market factors.
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Published: 24 January 2026
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