Empirical Study on the Reform of Criminal Second Instance Protest System: Based on the Analysis of 15,256 Judicial Documents
Lu Yang1, Cao Li2
1.Institute of Procedural Law Studies, China University of Political Science and Law,Beijing 100084, China 2.School of Criminal Justice, China University of Political Science and Law, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract：This study focuses on the “precision in criminal appeals by protest” reform initiated by the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, and seeks to uncover, through large-scale empirical analysis, the actual effects and limitations of this normative reform in institutional practices. Drawing on 15,256 criminal appeal judgments from 2018 to 2023, the study employs descriptive statistics and regression analysis to examine the factors associated with the success of prosecutorial appeals. Key factors are further identified to assess both the strengths and weaknesses of the reform.In terms of scholarly significance, the study directly responds to long-standing critiques in the academic community that the appeal by protest system tends to “emphasize substantive issues over procedural ones”, “focus on serious crimes while neglecting minor ones” and “favor appeals unfavorable to defendants”. By adopting a large-sample empirical approach, the study tests whether the precision reform has corrected these institutional tendencies. Through systematic analysis of over 15,000 judgments, the study reveals the operational logic and actual outcomes of the reform: the procuratorate has made notable progress in both its willingness to appeal (dare to appeal) and its accuracy (appeal with precision); the problem of privileging substance over procedure has been partially alleviated; new evidence and new facts have played a more decisive role in supporting successful appeals; and follow-up appeals in plea-bargaining cases have effectively curbed improper appeals, thereby strengthening the supervisory function of law. Nevertheless, challenges remain: the “relay-style appeals” between higher and lower procuratorates have not achieved the desired effect; appeals favorable to defendants remain limited in both the number and success rate; the success rate of appeals in duty-related crimes and minor offenses is still relatively low; and the heavy caseload burden on judges has had an undue impact on the success of appeals.The innovations of this study lie in three main aspects. First, through large-sample quantitative analysis, it empirically reveals the relationships between different factors (such as offense and sentencing variables, reasons for appeal, and other procedural factors) and the likelihood of appeal success. Second, based on these findings, it provides a systematic empirical evaluation of the reform’s effectiveness, testing the procuratorate’s improvements in both willingness and accuracy, while also demonstrating the reform’s role in alleviating the tendency to prioritize substance over procedure, strengthening the use of new evidence, and restraining improper appeals in plea-bargaining cases. Third, the study proposes a series of targeted reform measures to address the remaining problems, including improving the coordination mechanism between higher and lower procuratorates, establishing special procedures for appeals favorable to defendants, optimizing the appeal system for minor offenses and duty-related crimes, and strengthening the evidentiary supplementation mechanism.In conclusion, this research not only provides empirical evidence on the effects of reform in the criminal appeal by protest system, but also offers policy insights for future improvements. Specifically, while advancing the goal of precision, equal attention must be given to institutionalizing procedural oversight, so as to prevent the system from evolving into a tool focusing excessively on the uniformity of conviction and sentencing at the expense of judicial independence and procedural justice. Only by striking this balance can the criminal appeal by protest system achieve healthier and more sustainable development between precision and fairness.
路旸, 曹莉. 刑事抗诉精准化改革的实效评估与完善路径[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2026, 56(8): 165-180.
Lu Yang, Cao Li. Empirical Study on the Reform of Criminal Second Instance Protest System: Based on the Analysis of 15,256 Judicial Documents. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2026, 56(8): 165-180.
2026, Vol. 56 
