The Impact of Policy Tools for China’s Carbon Peaking and
Carbon Neutrality on Common Prosperity: Evidence from County-level Data of Chinese Certified Emissions Reduction Projects
Fang Kai Mao Mengyuan Liu Xiao Li Shi Chen Shuai Liu peilin
Abstract：In the new development stage, it is of significance to explore policy tools that facilitate the simultaneous realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and common prosperity. Based on the data of 2,492 Chinese certified emission reduction (CCER) projects in 2,195 districts and counties in China from 2013 through 2019, this paper investigates the impact of CCER projects on the per capita disposable income of rural residents and the underlying mechanism by establishing a fixed effect panel model. The research results are verified by a suite of model settings, robustness tests and mechanism analyses.
Compared with existing studies, the marginal contributions of this paper are threefold. First, we aim at validating the policy synergies between carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and common prosperity by exploring the relationship between CCER projects and farmers’ income. Second, we compile and analyze the data for the number of projects and installed capacity of 2,492 CCERs and the 6-year per capita disposable income of rural residents in 2,195 districts and counties throughout China. Third, to make the research results scientifically robust, a two-way fixed effects panel model is developed in combination with instrumental variables test, mechanism analysis and heterogeneity analysis. For example, to address the endogeneity issue, this paper selects annual average wind speed and sunshine hours for instrumental variables testing and further eliminates the effect of pro-poor policies through heterogeneity testing.
The results showed that: (1) the CCER projects have significantly improved the income of rural resident; (2) the increase in local non-agricultural employment constitutes the core of the mechanism; (3) the impact of the CCER projects on rural residents’ income vary across the regions, and faster increase in rural income is observed in areas with a relatively low non-agricultural employment rate.
These findings can not only provide a scientific basis for timely resuming the approval of CCER projects and increasing the share of CCER projects in the national emission trading scheme, but also provide empirical evidences that support the policy synergies of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and common prosperity. In the next step, it is necessary to explore various socioeconomic effects produced by the CCER projects as this is the key to generating policy synergies between climate action and human welfare in a broader sense.
方恺、毛梦圆、刘潇、李实、陈帅、刘培林. 双碳政策工具的共同富裕效应——基于中国核证自愿减排项目的县域面板数据研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 0, (): 1-.
Fang Kai Mao Mengyuan Liu Xiao Li Shi Chen Shuai Liu peilin . The Impact of Policy Tools for China’s Carbon Peaking and
Carbon Neutrality on Common Prosperity: Evidence from County-level Data of Chinese Certified Emissions Reduction Projects. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 0, (): 1-.
