Abstract：Technical progress and paths of technical efficiency evolution may be interconnected between different industries .As the result of technologyconduction between different industries andits spillover ,the technical progress in one industry may bring a shock to the technologies in other industries . As the transformation and upgrading of China's economy has gradually become an important goal and trend of future development ,there is an increasing need for research into the relationship between the different paths that industries take in their technical and efficiency evolution . Given the importance of technical progress and the impact channels of technical progress and technical efficiency evolution ,afeasiblepolicy option is to select appropriate leading industries to drive forward the development of other industries and the technical progress of the entire economy .The aim of this research is to provide evidence to support such a policy option . Taking into account the typicality of the industrial system and the urgency of industry upgrading in Zhejiang Province ,we selected its top ten industries as a sample .Applying the DEA method ,we break down the quarter changes in their productivity into progress at the technical frontier and technical efficiency evolution . Then the Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model is used to observe the conducting trends of technical progress and of efficiency evolution as endogenous variables among different industries and to analyze the impact of different exogenous shocks on the technical progress and efficiency evolution in different industries . First of all ,we have found that although on one hand the technical efficiency changes of most industries have a role to play in promoting technical progress ,on the other hand ,the progress at the technical frontier has resulted in a decreasing trend of average technical efficiency in the same industry . This reflects a complex relationship between technology and efficiency . Secondly ,there is no clear evidence of reciprocal technology-conduction existing between different industries .On the contrary ,we have found that the technical progressin oneindustry has brought down the speed of technical progress in other industries on average .This may reflect the defects of our market mechanism . Thirdly ,trade openness has positive impacts on improving technical efficiency in some industries ,but have an overall negative impact on the technical progress in all industries . The flow of information and technology brought by opening up has made possible the better useof existing technology ,but it has also brought fierce competition ,which makes the technology spillover theory become unrealistic . Fourthly ,we have found that the exchange rate ,interest rate ,fluctuations in world oil prices ,and other exogenous shocks not only have a direct impact on industrial output ,but also on the technology and efficiency of the industry to some extent . This reflects the cost of opening up from another angle : more risks and volatility from the outside world .
马述忠 周夏杰 冯晗. 基于效率增进的产业内生关联与外生冲击研究----一个浙江案例[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2012, 42(6): 126-141.
Ma Shuzhong Zhou Xiajie Feng Han . Exploring the Endogenous Links and Exogenous Shocks Based on Efficiency Improvement :A Case Study of Zhejiang Province. , 2012, 42(6): 126-141.