Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报（理学版）
浙江大学学报（理学版）  2020, Vol. 47 Issue (5): 642-650    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2020.05.016
其他     
大型公共建筑工程质量保险纯费率厘定研究——基于GLM及GAM的实证比较分析
盛金喜, 李慧民, 段品生, 郭海东
西安建筑科技大学 土木工程学院，陕西 西安 710055
Research on the pure premium rate making of quality insurance for large-cale public buildings:Empirical comparative analysis based on GLM and GAM
SHENG Jinxi, LI Huimin, DUAN Pinsheng, GUO Haidong
School of Civil Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an 710055, China
 全文: PDF(1090 KB)   HTML  
摘要： 为准确地厘定大型公共建筑工程质量的保险纯费率，通过文献分析及调研，对影响大型公共建筑工程质量的因素进行了研究，提炼出11项保险费率因子。以46栋竣工于1993—2016年的大型公共建筑为工程数据集，在频率-强度法基础上，基于Poisson、Negative Binomial、Gamma、Inverse Gauss等分布的假设，利用广义线性模型及广义可加模型建立了8个工程质量保险纯费率厘定模型，通过比较选择最优模型，并对模型进行了验证。结果表明，所建模型可用于大型公共建筑工程质量保险纯费率厘定。
关键词： 工程质量;  费率厘定;  广义线性模型（GLM）;  广义可加模型（GAM）;  大型公共建筑    
Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of pure premium rate making of quality insurance for large-scale public building on the basis of literature analysis, this paper studies the influencing factors of quality loss of large-scale public building projects, and extracts 11 insurance premium rate factors. Based on the frequency-severity method and the distribution assumptions of Poisson distribution, Negative Binomial distribution, Gamma distribution and Inverse Gauss distribution, 8 quality insurance pure premium rate-making models are established by using generalized linear model and generalized additive model on the basis of 46 large-scale public buildings data sets completed in 1993—2016 in China, then the best model is selected and its rationality is verified. The results show that the model is suitable for the pure premium rate making of quality insurance for large-scale public building projects.
Key words: large-scale public building    quality problem    rate-making    generalized additive model    generalized linear model
收稿日期: 2019-09-08 出版日期: 2020-09-25
CLC:  F842  
基金资助: 住房和城乡建设部科技项目（ZLAQ(2015)?ZL?1；ZLAQ(2017)?ZL?4；ZLAQ(2018)?ZL?5）.
作者简介: 盛金喜(1976—)，ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1481-8968，男，博士，高级工程师，主要从事建设工程全生命周期风险管理研究，E-mail：shengjinxi@126.com.。
服务　　
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章　　
盛金喜
李慧民
段品生
郭海东

引用本文:

盛金喜, 李慧民, 段品生, 郭海东. 大型公共建筑工程质量保险纯费率厘定研究——基于GLM及GAM的实证比较分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2020, 47(5): 642-650.

SHENG Jinxi, LI Huimin, DUAN Pinsheng, GUO Haidong. Research on the pure premium rate making of quality insurance for large-cale public buildings:Empirical comparative analysis based on GLM and GAM. Journal of Zhejiang University (Science Edition), 2020, 47(5): 642-650.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2020.05.016    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2020/V47/I5/642

1 ROMANOVA A I. Improving the quality of construction works in terms of the self-regulation[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2016, 150: 2108-2112. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.248
2 丁烈云，陈兴海. 从汶川地震灾害看我国建筑质量风险分担机制[J].科技进步与对策, 2009,26(21):113-117. DING L Y, CHEN X H. Research on the risk-sharing system of construction quality in China from the earthquake disaster in Wenchuan[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2009,26(21): 113-117.
3 JI Y B Research on compulsory inherent defect insurance of building in China[C]//2009 Fourth International Conference on Computer Sciences and Convergence Information Technology. Seoul：IEEE, 2009: 1358-1361. DOI: 10.1109/iccit.2009.228
4 JOSEPHSON P E, HAMMARLUND Y. The causes and costs of defects in construction: A study of seven building projects[J]. Automation in Construction, 1999, 8(6): 681-687. DOI: 10.1016/S0926-5805(98)00114-9
5 CHAN A P C, TAM C M. Factors affecting the quality of building projects in Hong Kong[J]. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 2000, 17(4/5): 423-442. DOI: 10.1108/02656710010298445
6 傅鸿源，姚尧，李良. 基于RBF网络的工程保险费率厘定研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2008(7):169-172. DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2008.07.025 FU H Y, YAO L, LI L. The research for engineering insurance rate calculation based on the RBF neural networks [J]. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2008(7):169-172. DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2008.07.025
7 梁健娟. GLM在建筑工程质量保险费率厘定中的应用研究[D]. 大连：大连理工大学, 2011. LIANG J J. An Application of Generalized Linear Models on Inherent Defect Insurance Pricing[D]. Dalian：Dalian University of Technology, 2011.
8 LEE S D, CHA Y W, HAN S W, et al. Application of association rule mining and social network analysis for understanding causality of construction defects[J]. Sustainability, 2019, 11(3): 618. DOI: 10.3390/su11030618
9 赵秀影，梁心，孙宪阁，等. 工程建设质量保险费率厘定方法研究[J]. 建筑经济,2008(11):52-55. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0577-7429.2008.20.017. ZHAO X Y, LIANG X, SUN X G, et al. Research on premium rate making methods of engineering construction quality[J]. Construction Economics, 2008 (11): 52-55. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0577-7429.2008.20.017
10 赵金先，孙境韩，范轲，等. 房屋建筑工程质量潜在缺陷保险费率厘定研究[J].工程管理学报,2016, 30(4): 24-28. DOI: 10.13991/j.cnki.jem.2016.04.005 ZHAO J X, SUN J H, FAN K, et al. Research on housing construction quality latent defects insurance rate[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2016, 30(4): 24-28. DOI: 10.13991/j.cnki.jem.2016.04.005
11 赵海鹏. 房屋质量保险制度的研究[D]. 上海：同济大学，2006 . DOI: 10.7666/d.y1014085 ZHAO H P. Research on Building Inherent Defects Insurance System[D]. Shanghai: Tongji University, 2006. DOI: 10.7666/d.y1014085
12 FU L, MONCHER R B. Severity distributions for GLMs: Gamma or lognormal? Evidence from Monte Carlo simulations[C]// Casualty Actuarial Society Discussion Paper Program. Arlington: Casualty Actuarial Society, 2004：149-230.
13 FREES E, LEE G, YANG L. Multivariate frequency-severity regression models in insurance[J]. Risks, 2016, 4(1): 4. DOI: 10.3390/risks4010004
14 孟生旺. 风险模型：基于R的保险损失预测[M]. 北京：清华大学出版社，2017. MENG S W. Risk Model: Insurance Loss Prediction Based on R [M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2017.
15 CHEN J, LIU G, YANG L, et al. Pricing and simulation for extreme flood catastrophe bonds[J]. Water Resources Management, 2013, 27(10):3713-3725. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0376-2
16 侯学良，朱宏亮，关罡. 中国住宅工程质量问题的循证管理方法及其实证研究(1)——质量问题的群因素分析[J]. 土木工程学报,2008(7):92-97. DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-131X.2008.07.016 HOU X L, ZHU H L, GUAN G. Evidence-management method and confirmatory analysis for quality problems of residential engineering in China(1)[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2008(7): 92-97. DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-131X.2008.07.016
17 张英隆. 工程项目风险管理中的质量安全保险费率研究[D]. 上海：上海交通大学，2008. ZHANG Y L. Research on Premium Rating of Construction Quality& Safety Insurances in Construction Risk Management[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2008.
18 谢洪涛，王孟钧. 我国重大工程质量管理现状及质量影响因素的实证研究[J]. 标准科学,2008(8): 17-20. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5698.2008.08.004 XIE H T, WANG M J. An analysis to quality management status of large engineering project and factors affecting the quality[J]. Standard Science, 2008(8): 17-20. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-5698.2008.08.004
19 朱晓婷. 住宅质量保证保险费率厘定体系研究[D].西安：西安建筑科技大学，2010. DOI: 10.7666/d.d193542 ZHU X T. Research of Residence Quality Controlling Insurance Mechanism System[D]. Xi’an: Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, 2010. DOI: 10.7666/d.d193542
20 李慧民, 马海骋, 盛金喜. 建筑工程质量保险制度基础[M]. 北京：科学出版社. 2017. LI H M, MA H C, SHENG J X. Foundation of Construction Engineering Quality Insurance System [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2017.
21 JHA K N, IYER K C. Critical factors affecting quality performance in construction projects[J]. Total Quality Management and Business Excellence, 2006, 17(9): 1155-1170. DOI: 10.1080/14783360600750444
22 AHZAHAR N, KARIM N A, HASSAN S H, et al. A study of contribution factors to building failures and defects in construction industry[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2011, 20: 249-255. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2011.11.162
23 CHENG Y M. An exploration into cost-influencing factors on construction projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2014, 32(5): 850-860. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.10.003
24 LARSEN J K, SHEN G Q, LINDHARD S M, et al. Factors affecting schedule delay, cost overrun, and quality level in public construction projects[J]. Journal of Management in Engineering, 2015, 32(1): 04015032. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000391
25 王雪青，孟海涛，喻刚. 建设工程监理责任保险费率问题研究[J]. 土木工程学报，2009,42(1):130-134. DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-131X.2009.01.021 WANG X Q, MENG H T, YU G. Study on the premium rate of professional liability insurance for supervising engineers[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2009,42 (1): 130-134. DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-131X.2009.01.021
No related articles found!