Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报（医学版）
浙江大学学报（医学版）  2015, Vol. 44 Issue (6): 645-652    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2015.11.08
原著     
输入性登革热引起本地传播疫情风险的半定量评估
何凡1, 易波2, 常玥3, 杨涛4, 魏晶娇5, 王心怡1, 李傅冬1, 尚晓鹏1, 林君芬1
1. 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 浙江 杭州 310051;
2. 宁波市疾病预防控制中心, 浙江 宁波 315010;
3. 台州市疾病预防控制中心, 浙江 台州 318000;
4. 余杭区疾病预防控制中心, 浙江 余杭 311100;
5. 温州市疾病预防控制中心, 浙江 温州 325000
Semi-quantitative risk assessment on local transmission of Dengue fever caused by introduced cases
HE Fan1, YI Bo2, CHANG Yue3, YANG Tao4, WEI Jing-jiao5, WANG Xin-yi1, LI Fu-dong1, SHANG Xiao-peng1, LIN Jun-fen1
1. Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China;
2. Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China;
3. Taizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taizhou 318000, China;
4. Yuhang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhang 311100, China;
5. Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wenzhou 325000, China
全文: PDF(924 KB)  
摘要: 

目的:评估浙江省2015年输入性登革热引起本地传播疫情风险,探索突发事件公共卫生风险的半定量评估方法。方法:系统梳理输入性登革热引起本地传播的风险指标体系,用层次分析法计算指标权重,根据指标实际值计算绝对风险,同时,将层次分析法权重与TOPSIS法相结合,计算相对风险综合指数。结果:共识别登革热输入病例引起本地传播疫情风险评估一级指标4项、二级指标19项。19项二级指标中权重值最大的为"疫情相关国家入境人数"(权重0.0678),最小为"人口密度"(权重0.0371),专家评分矩阵的一致性检验统计量CR值均小于0.1(最小0.000,最大0.0922,平均0.0251)。浙江省平均绝对风险0.397~0.504(满分为1);对11个市计算的相对风险综合指数和绝对风险分值具有较为一致的风险顺位,其中居前三位的均是:杭州、温州和宁波,三者的绝对风险范围分别为0.387~0.494、0.404~0.511、0.392~0.499。结论:评估结果为浙江省防控登革热疫情提供了科学依据,也为今后开展登革热疫情风险评估建立了指标体系和权重,为突发事件公共卫生风险评估建立了半定量评估思路与方法。
关键词 ： 登革热/流行病学,  风险调节,  软件,  层次分析法,  TOPSIS法    
Abstract：

Objective: To assess the risk of local transmission of Dengue caused by introduced cases with semi-quantitative method in 2015 in Zhejiang Province. Methods: Risk indexes of local transmission of Dengue caused by introduced cases were reviewed. The weights of indexes were computed by analytic hierarchy process and further used to generate absolute risk values by multiplying indexes. Moreover, comprehensive indexes were computed to describe relative risk by combining analytic hierarchy process and TOPSIS methods. Results: Four primary indexes and 19 secondary indexes were identified for risk assessment of local transmission of Dengue. The indexes with maximum and minimum weight were the number of immigration from countries with Dengue patients (weight value: 0.0678) and density of population (weight value: 0.0371) respectively. All CR values, statistics for measuring consistency of score matrix, were less than 0.1 (minimum: 0.000, maximum: 0.0922, average: 0.0251). The absolute risk of Zhejiang Province was within the range of 0.397-0.504 (the full score was 1.0). The risk orders of 11 municipalities sorted by relative comprehensive indexes and absolute risk values methods were similar. The three highest municipalities were Hangzhou, Wenzhou and Ningbo and the ranges of absolute risk value were 0.387-0.494, 0.404-0.511 and 0.392-0.499 respectively. Conclusion: The results provides scientific basis for preventing and controlling Dengue in Zhejiang Province. The indexes and weights may be used to assess risk of Dengue in future. In addition, the semi-quantitative method constructed in this study would be a significant reference for risk assessment of public health in emergencies.
Key words： Dengue/epidemiology    Risk adjustment    Software    Analytic hierarchy process method    TOPSIS method
收稿日期: 2015-07-29
CLC:  R18  
基金资助:

浙江省重点科技创新团队计划(2011R50021)
通讯作者: 林君芬(1969-),女,硕士,主任医师,主要从事公共卫生监测与疾病控制研究;E-mail:zjlinjunfen@163.com;http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3184-2070     E-mail: zjlinjunfen@163.com
作者简介: 何凡(1979-),男,硕士,副主任医师,主要从事公共卫生监测与疾病控制工作;E-mail:fhe@cdc.zj.cn;http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6027-7157
服务　　
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章　　

引用本文:

何凡等. 输入性登革热引起本地传播疫情风险的半定量评估[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 2015, 44(6): 645-652.
HE Fan, YI Bo, CHANG Yue, YANG Tao, WEI Jing-jiao, WANG Xin-yi, LI Fu-dong, SHANG Xiao-peng, LIN Jun-fen. Semi-quantitative risk assessment on local transmission of Dengue fever caused by introduced cases. Journal of ZheJiang University(Medical Science), 2015, 44(6): 645-652.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/med/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2015.11.08      或      http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/med/CN/Y2015/V44/I6/645

[1] GUBLER D J. Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever[J]. Clin Microbiol Rev, 1998,11(3):480-496.
[2] HAY S I, GRAHAM A J, ROGERS D J. Global mapping of infectious diseases: methods, examples and emerging applications[J]. Adv Parasitol, 2006,62:ix-xi.
[3] 许国章,施南峰,董红军,等.浙江慈溪输入性登革热爆发的流行特征与防制对策研究[J]. 中国热带医学,2006,6(7):1129-1131. XU Guo-zhang, SHI Nan-feng, DONG Hong-jun, et al. Studies on the prevalent features of imported dengue fever and control measures[J]. China Tropical Medicine, 2006,6(7):1129-1131. (in Chinese)
[4] 凌 锋,范伟忠,林君芬,等.浙江省义乌市一起登革热暴发疫情流行病学调查[J]. 疾病监测,2010,25(9):757-759. LING Feng,FAN Wei-zhong,LIN Jun-fen, et al. Epidemiological survey on a dengue fever outbreak in Yiwu, Zhejiang province[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2010,25(9):757-759. (in Chinese)
[5] 中华人民共和国卫生和计划生育委员会. 突发事件公共卫生风险评估管理办法 (2012-6-11)[2015-3-25]. National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China. Management measures on risk assessment for public health in emergencies (2012-6-11)[2015-3-25]. (in Chinese)
[6] 中国疾病预防控制中心.《突发公共卫生事件风险评估工作指南》(2014版)[S/OL]. (2015-7-31)[2015-8-5]. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Technical proposal on risk assessment for public health in emergencies (2014 version) [S/OL]. (2015-7-31)[2015-8-5]. (in Chinese)
[7] 张炜琪,苌凤水,孙 梅,等.应用层次分析法确定我国疾病预防控制绩效考核指标体系权重[J]. 中国卫生资源,2012,15(1):14-15,35. ZHANG Wei-qi,CHANG Feng-shui,SUN Mei, et al. Setting the weight of the indicators in performance evaluation of the disease control and prevention system: the application of analytic hierarchy process[J]. Chinese Health Resources, 2012,15(1):14-15,35. (in Chinese)
[8] 张 亮,阮国栋,丛培质,等.外国人入境后传染病风险评估体系的构建思路[J]. 中国国境卫生检疫杂志,2009,32(2):85-87,90. ZHANG Liang, RUAN Guo-dong, CONG Pei-zhi, et al. The construction ideas of risk assessment system for infectious diseases among foreigners after their immigration[J]. Chinese Journal of Frontier Health and Quarantine, 2009,32(2):85-87,90. (in Chinese)
[9] 陈治宏,卢国明,吴晓华,等.基于AHP的群决策风险评估方法[J]. 计算机应用,2009,29:125-127,145. CHEN Zhi-hong, LU Guo-ming, WU Xiao-hua, et al. Risk assessment method for group decision-making with AHP[J]. Journal of Computer Applications, 2009,29:125-127,145. (in Chinese)
[10] 陈 萌.TOPSIS法与层次分析法在医疗质量分析中的应用比较[J]. 中国医药指南,2009,7(7):111-112. CHEN Meng. Comparison on TOPSIS and analytic hierarchy process methods for analyzing the medical quality[J]. Guide of China Medicine, 2009,7(7):111-112. (in Chinese)
[11] 于秀金,张皓斐.一种将AHF和TOPSIS融合的决策方法[J]. 电脑与信息技术,2010,18(6):28-31,77. YU Xiu-jin,ZHANG Hao-fei. The integration about AHP integrate and TOPSIS to implement decision-making[J]. Computer and Information Technology, 2010,18(6):28-31,77. (in Chinese)
方 曦,李 娜,葛月凤.基于AHP与TOPSIS方法的中文搜索引擎评价体系[J]. 科技导报,2012,30(14):49-54. FANG Xi, LI Na,GE Yue-feng. Evaluation system for Chinese search engines based on the AHP-TOPSIS[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2012,30(14):49-54. (in Chinese)
[12] 谢淑云,王 臻,杨仕贵,等.浙江省一起输入性登革热暴发的流行病学调查分析[J]. 疾病监测,2005,20(7):353-355. XIE Shu-yun, WANG Zhen, YANG Shi-gui, et al. An epidemiologic investigation and analysis of an imported dengue fever epidemic[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2005,20(7):353-355. (in Chinese)
[1] . 埃博拉病毒病流行病学[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 2014, 43(6): 621-645.
[2] . 老年抑郁的自然转归及风险预测模型[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 2012, 41(6): 653-658.
[3] . 居民基本医疗信息系统数据集研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 2012, 41(4): 418-424.
[4] 严智宇;丁宗辉. 全基因组预测Phenylobacterium zucineum HLK1T的外排蛋白[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 2009, 38(2): 174-180.
[5] 周逸丹，谷卫. 计算机辅助2型糖尿病饮食治疗的临床研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 2003, 32(3): 244-248.
[6] 陆金芳, 郑建芬, 华金中. 膳食营养分析教学软件的设计与应用[J]. 浙江大学学报（医学版）, 1997, 26(4): 181-183.