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浙江大学学报(医学版)  2022, Vol. 51 Issue (1): 1-9    DOI: 10.3724/zdxbyxb-2021-0227
专题报道     
基于长短时记忆循环神经网络的北京市糖尿病合并呼吸系统疾病患者入院预测研究
朱倩1,章萌1,胡耀余1,徐小林2,3,陶丽新1,4,张杰1,4,罗艳侠1,4,郭秀花1,4,刘相佟1,4,*()
1.首都医科大学公共卫生学院,北京 100069
2.浙江大学医学院公共卫生学院,浙江 杭州 310058
3.澳大利亚昆士兰大学,澳大利亚 布里斯班 4006
4.北京市临床流行病学重点实验室,北京 100069
Research on prediction of daily admissions of respiratory diseases with comorbid diabetes in Beijing based on long short-term memory recurrent neural network
ZHU Qian1,ZHANG Meng1,HU Yaoyu1,XU Xiaolin2,3,TAO Lixin1,4,ZHANG Jie1,4,LUO Yanxia1,4,GUO Xiuhua1,4,LIU Xiangtong1,4,*()
1. School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China;
2. School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China;
3. The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4006, Australia;
4. Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
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摘要:

目的:比较广义相加模型(GAM)和长短时记忆循环神经网络(LSTM-RNN)对糖尿病合并呼吸系统疾病患者入院频数的预测效果。方法:收集2014年1月1日至2019年12月31日北京市大气污染物、气象因素和呼吸系统疾病入院数据,基于LSTM-RNN预测糖尿病合并呼吸系统疾病患者入院频数并与GAM对比,模型评价采用五折交叉验证法。结果:与GAM相比,LSTM-RNN具有较低的预测误差[均方根误差(RMSE)分别为21.21±3.30和46.13±7.60,P<0.01;平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为14.64±1.99和36.08±6.20,P<0.01]和较高的拟合优度(R2值分别为0.79±0.06和0.57±0.12,P<0.01)。在性别分层中,预测女性入院频数时,LSTM-RNN三项指标均优于GAM(均P<0.05);预测男性入院频数时,两模型误差评价指标差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。在季节分层中,预测温暖季节的入院频数时,LSTM-RNN的RMSE和MAE均低于GAM(均P<0.05),R2值差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);预测寒冷季节入院频数时,两种模型的RMSE、MAE和R2值差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。在功能区分层中,预测首都功能核心区入院频数时,LSTM-RNN的RMSE、MAE和R2值均优于GAM(均P<0.05)。结论:LSTM-RNN预测误差较小,拟合程度优,可作为污染天气提前精准配置医疗资源的预测手段。

关键词: 长短时记忆循环神经网络广义相加模型呼吸系统疾病糖尿病日入院频数预测    
Abstract:

Objective: To compare the performance of generalized additive model (GAM) and long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) on the prediction of daily admissions of respiratory diseases with comorbid diabetes. Methods: Daily data on air pollutants, meteorological factors and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases from Jan 1st, 2014 to Dec 31st, 2019 in Beijing were collected. LSTM-RNN was used to predict the daily admissions of respiratory diseases with comorbid diabetes, and the results were compared with those of GAM. The evaluation indexes were calculated by five-fold cross validation. Results: Compared with the GAM, the prediction errors of LSTM-RNN were significantly lower [root mean squared error (RMSE): 21.21±3.30 vs. 46.13±7.60, P<0.01; mean absolute error (MAE): 14.64±1.99 vs. 36.08±6.20,P<0.01], and theR2 value was significantly higher (0.79±0.06 vs. 0.57±0.12, P<0.01). In gender stratification, RMSE, MAE andR2 values of LSTM-RNN were better than those of GAM in predicting female admission (all P<0.05), but there were no significant difference in predicting male admission between two models (allP>0.05). In seasonal stratification, RMSE and MAE of LSTM-RNN were lower than those of GAM in predicting warm season admission (allP<0.05), but there was no significant difference inR2 value (P>0.05). There were no significant difference in RMSE, MAE andR2 between the two models in predicting cold season admission (all P>0.05). In the stratification of functional areas, the RMSE, MAE andR2 values of LSTM-RNN were better than those of GAM in predicting core area admission (all P<0.05).Conclusion: LSTM-RNN has lower prediction errors and better fitting than the GAM, which can provide scientific basis for precise allocation of medical resources in polluted weather in advance.

Key words: Long short-term memory recurrent neural network    Generalized additive model    Respiratory disease    Diabetes mellitus    Daily admission    Prediction
收稿日期: 2021-08-06 出版日期: 2022-05-17
CLC:  R197.5  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金(82003559);北京市优秀人才培养青年骨干个人项目;首都医科大学自然培育项目(PYZ2018046)
通讯作者: 刘相佟     E-mail: xiangtongl@ccmu.edu.cn
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引用本文:

朱倩,章萌,胡耀余,徐小林,陶丽新,张杰,罗艳侠,郭秀花,刘相佟. 基于长短时记忆循环神经网络的北京市糖尿病合并呼吸系统疾病患者入院预测研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(医学版), 2022, 51(1): 1-9.

ZHU Qian,ZHANG Meng,HU Yaoyu,XU Xiaolin,TAO Lixin,ZHANG Jie,LUO Yanxia,GUO Xiuhua,LIU Xiangtong. Research on prediction of daily admissions of respiratory diseases with comorbid diabetes in Beijing based on long short-term memory recurrent neural network. J Zhejiang Univ (Med Sci), 2022, 51(1): 1-9.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/med/CN/10.3724/zdxbyxb-2021-0227        https://www.zjujournals.com/med/CN/Y2022/V51/I1/1

序号

变量名称

变量种类

单位

赋值

1

月份

特征变量

2

日期

特征变量

3

节假日

特征变量

d

0∶非节假日

1∶节假日

4

星期

特征变量

d

5

既往入院频数

特征变量

例次/d

6

PM2.5

特征变量

μg/m3

7

PM10

特征变量

μg/m3

8

二氧化硫

特征变量

μg/m3

9

二氧化氮

特征变量

μg/m3

10

臭氧

特征变量

μg/m3

11

一氧化碳

特征变量

mg/m3

12

空气质量指数

特征变量

13

温度

特征变量

14

比湿

特征变量

g/kg

15

气压

特征变量

hPa

16

风速

特征变量

m/s

17

预测入院频数

目标变量

例次/d

表 1  长短时记忆循环神经网络输入及输出数据的特征
图 1  2014—2019年北京16个行政区大气污染物空间分布图PM2.5: 细颗粒物. PM10: 可吸入颗粒物.

类别

总入院频数

每日入院频数

患者性别男性

146? 958(58.40)

71(37,89)

女性

104? 697(41.60)

48(29,63)

患者年龄≤60岁

34? 281(13.62)

16(9,21)

>60岁

217 ?374(86.38)

104(57,132)

季节寒冷

134 ?665(53.51)

131(69,164)

温暖

116 ?990(46.49)

114(62,141)

功能区首都功能核心区

36 ?795(14.62)

18(7,24)

城市功能拓展区

114? 049(45.32)

55(26,71)

城市发展新区

67 ?393(26.78)

30(21,39)

生态涵养区

33? 418(13.28)

14(10,20)

合计

251? 655(100.00)

121(65,151)

表 2  2014—2019年北京市糖尿病合并呼吸系统疾病患者入院频数的基本描述

变量

中位数

最小值

Q1

Q3

最大值

四分位数间距

污染物PM2.5(μg/m3

47.34

8.32

30.64

73.01

301.08

42.38

PM10(μg/m3

82.67

22.23

59.36

116.79

689.27

57.42

二氧化硫(μg/m3

9.56

3.86

6.10

15.77

109.24

9.67

二氧化氮(μg/m3

36.42

12.01

29.32

48.63

113.34

19.30

臭氧(μg/m3

87.09

10.85

56.50

128.65

246.85

72.15

一氧化碳(mg/m3

0.85

0.31

0.67

1.14

6.04

0.47

空气质量指数

74.69

15.16

49.64

111.68

431.69

62.04

气象因素温度(℃)

9.70

–16.33

–1.87

18.92

28.01

20.79

比湿(g/kg)

4.71

0.22

1.80

10.44

22.08

8.64

气压(hPa)

997.85

972.97

990.25

1005.84

1023.25

15.59

风速(m/s)

0.72

0.27

0.57

0.99

5.25

0.41

表 3  2014—2019年北京市大气污染物及气象因素的描述性统计分析结果
图 2  长短时记忆循环神经网络的损失曲线
图 3  不同迭代次数下长短时记忆循环神经网络的均方根误差

训练超参数

设置

训练超参数

设置

原始数据集/条

2191

随机断开连接比例

0.2

记录时间间隔/d

1

预测时长

7

训练集大小/d

1753

参数优化方式

AdaMax

测试集大小/d

438

模型损失评价

MSE

LSTM-RNN层数

1

训练迭代次数

50

连接的神经元个数

90

每次批次大小

40

输出层层数

1

?

表 4  长短时记忆循环神经网络(LSTM-RNN)超参数设置
图 4  长短时记忆循环神经网络(LSTM-RNN)与广义相加模型(GAM)预测糖尿病合并呼吸系统疾病患者入院频数比较

类别

RMSE

MAE

调整后R2

GAM

LSTM-RNN

GAM

LSTM-RNN

GAM

LSTM-RNN

患者性别 男性

40.28 ± 24.63

13.36 ± 2.03

30.95 ± 18.89

9.68 ± 1.40

0.52 ± 0.08

0.75 ± 0.06**

女性

34.30 ± 16.85

10.95 ± 1.27*

26.69 ± 13.13

8.12 ± 0.83*

0.31 ± 0.05

0.73 ± 0.06**

季节温暖

30.26 ± 8.38

19.62 ± 4.84*

24.88 ± 7.72

13.87 ± 3.19*

0.77 ± 0.06

0.76 ± 0.07

寒冷

38.26 ± 19.18

22.60 ± 4.50

29.51 ± 16.09

16.11 ± 3.36

0.67 ± 0.15

0.78 ± 0.11

功能区首都功能核心区

9.25 ± 2.72

5.58 ± 0.62*

6.99 ± 2.24

4.13 ± 0.47*

0.54 ± 0.02

0.65 ± 0.09*

城市功能拓展区

38.09 ± 22.52

11.96 ± 2.01

29.01 ± 16.88

8.56 ± 1.12

0.48 ± 0.08

0.74 ± 0.07**

城市发展新区

8.23 ± 1.50

6.80 ± 0.88

6.31 ± 1.16

5.26 ± 0.69

0.58 ± 0.05

0.66 ±0.03*

生态涵养区

5.51 ± 0.81

4.58 ± 0.69

4.25 ± 0.43

3.59 ± 0.48

0.32 ± 0.12

0.41 ± 0.11

合计

46.13 ± 7.60

21.21 ± 3.30**

36.08 ± 6.20

14.64 ± 1.99**

0.57 ± 0.12

0.79 ± 0.06**

表 5  长短时记忆循环神经网络(LSTM-RNN)与广义相加模型(GAM)预测效果评价
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