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工程设计学报
工程设计学报  2015, Vol. 22 Issue (1): 26-29    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn. 1006-754X.2015.01.004
保质设计     
飞机可靠性分析中的混合威布尔分布参数估计方法
吴江
中国民航飞行学院 飞机修理厂，四川 广汉 618307
Parameter estimation method of mixed Weibull distribution in reliability analysis of aircraft
WU Jiang
Aircraft Repair & Overhaul Plant， Civil Aviation Flight University of China， Guanghan 618307, China
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摘要： 为更真实地描述飞机系统的失效规律，提高可靠性分析的准确性，利用混合威布尔分布建立了飞机可靠性分析模型．针对所建立的模型中参数估计困难的问题，基于K-S检验思想，以拟合优度最好为优化目标，将参数估计转化为无约束优化模型，建立了混合威布尔分布参数估计方法．将改进粒子群算法用于优化模型的求解，利用粒子群的适应度方差自动调整加速度因子，提高了优化求解效率并降低了陷入局部最优的概率．计算实例表明，该方法的参数估计精度高于其他方法，而且算法简单、易于实现，收敛速度较快，不易陷入局部最优解．
关键词： 飞机系统;  可靠性分析;  混合威布尔分布;  参数估计;  粒子群算法    
Abstract: In order to more realistically describe the failure rules of aircraft system and improve the accuracy of reliability analysis, the reliability analysis model of airplane was established using mixed Weibull distribution. Due to the difficulty of parameters estimation for the established model, it was converted into an unconstrained optimal mathematical model by using the idea of K-S test and performing maximum of goodness-of-fit as the optimization goal, and then a parameters estimation method of mixed Weibull distribution was established. Improved particle swarm algorithm was used to solve the optimal mathematical model. Because of using the variance of particle swarm to automatically adjust acceleration factor in the iterative calculation process, the efficiency of solving optimal mathematical model was improved, and the probability of falling into local optima solution was decreased. The numerical examples showed that the suggested method had characteristics including higher parameter estimation accuracy, simple and easy to implement, rapid convergence speed, and it was not easy to fall into local optimal solution.
Key words: aircraft system    reliability analysis    mixed Weibull distribution    parameter estimation    particle swarm algorithm
收稿日期: 2014-07-08 出版日期: 2015-02-28
基金资助:

中国民航飞行学院重点科学基金资助项目（ZJ2012-04）
作者简介: 吴江（1976—），男，四川广汉人，高级工程师，硕士，从事航空器维修与故障预测研究，E-mail：wjcafc@126.com．
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引用本文:

吴 江. 飞机可靠性分析中的混合威布尔分布参数估计方法[J]. 工程设计学报, 2015, 22(1): 26-29.

WU Jiang. Parameter estimation method of mixed Weibull distribution in reliability analysis of aircraft. Chinese Journal of Engineering Design, 2015, 22(1): 26-29.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/CN/10.3785/j.issn. 1006-754X.2015.01.004    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/CN/Y2015/V22/I1/26

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