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工程设计学报
工程设计学报  2015, Vol. 22 Issue (4): 317-323    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn. 1006-754X.2015.04.003
保质设计     
基于区间分析的舰船装备可靠性模糊分配方法
杨 超，狄 鹏，陈 童
海军工程大学 管理工程系， 湖北 武汉 430033
Fuzzy reliability allocation method for warship armaments based on interval analysis
YANG Chao， DI Peng， CHEN Tong
Department of Management Engineering， Naval University of Engineering， Wuhan 430033， China
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摘要： 针对舰船装备可靠性分配工作中具有多种影响因素且部分影响因素较难定量分析的问题，提出了一种基于AHP、模糊综合评判和区间分析的可靠性模糊综合分配方法.采用模糊综合评判构建了系统的可靠性分配模型，并设计出分配的技术路线；综合分析了8种影响可靠性分配的因素及其量化方法，并采用AHP构造了系统的可靠性分配递阶层次模型；采用区间数代替单一数值来表达模糊信息，并将定量分析与定性分析相结合，合理利用专家经验和相似系统的可靠性数据来确定判断矩阵和各影响因素的权重，从而有效解决了舰船装备可靠性模糊综合分配过程中的不确定性问题.最后，以某型舰电力系统可靠性分配为例，研究表明：该方法可操作性强、分配合理有效，具有较好的工程实践指导意义.
关键词： 舰船装备;  可靠性分配;  模糊综合评判;  区间分析;  定量分析;  定性分析    
Abstract: Aiming at problems that there were many factors that had influence on the allocation and some of which were hard to analyze quantitatively in process of warship armaments reliability allocation, a method was proposed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and interval analysis. This method employed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to establish reliability allocation model of system, and designed a flow chart of reliability allocation; eight influence factors were considered, and relative quantitative methods were analyzed, and hierarchical model of reliability allocation was established by AHP. Fuzzy information was expressed by interval number instead of single value, and reliability data of similar products and expert estimation were applied to determine judgment matrix and weight of each influence factor, which achieved the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. In all, the method had solved the uncertainty in process of reliability allocation for warship armaments. Finally, the application of this method in a warship power system indicated that the method was feasible and effective for the reliability allocation of warship armaments with good operation, and had a good practical significance in engineering.
Key words: warship armament    reliability allocation    fuzzy comprehensive evaluation    interval analysis    quantitative analysis    qualitative analysis
收稿日期: 2015-03-27 出版日期: 2015-08-28
基金资助:

海军工程大学自然科学基金资助项目(HGDKYJGZX15020)
作者简介: 杨超（1990—），男，四川宜宾人，硕士生，从事系统可靠性研究，E-mail: yangchao116633@163.com. 通信联系人：狄鹏，副教授，硕士生导师，E-mail: dipe@126.com.
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杨 超，狄 鹏，陈 童. 基于区间分析的舰船装备可靠性模糊分配方法[J]. 工程设计学报, 2015, 22(4): 317-323.

YANG Chao， DI Peng， CHEN Tong. Fuzzy reliability allocation method for warship armaments based on interval analysis. Chinese Journal of Engineering Design, 2015, 22(4): 317-323.

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https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/CN/10.3785/j.issn. 1006-754X.2015.04.003    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/CN/Y2015/V22/I4/317

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