基于动态贝叶斯网络的TBM卡机风险预测
颉芳弟,翟强,顾伟红

Risk prediction of TBM jamming based on dynamic Bayesian network
Fang-di XIE,Qiang ZHAI,Wei-hong GU
表 3 TBM卡机风险定量评价指标分级标准
Tab.3 Grading standard for quantitative evaluation index of TBM jamming risk index
符号 风险指标 分级依据 分级状态
1 2 3 4 5
M3 姿态偏差 偏移量/mm $\left[ {0,20} \right)$ $\left[ {20,50} \right)$ $\left[ {50,100} \right)$ $\left[ {100, + \infty } \right)$
M6 突泥涌沙 掌子面涌水量/(m3·h−1 $\left[ {400, + \infty } \right)$ $\left[ {200,400} \right)$ $\left[ {100,200} \right)$ $\left[ {0,100} \right)$
M7 软岩大变形 围岩收敛值/mm $\left[ {0,20} \right)$ $\left[ {20,40} \right)$ $\left[ {40,55} \right)$ $\left[ {55, + \infty } \right)$
A2 大量的地下水 单位涌水量/(L·s−1 $\left[ {100, + \infty } \right)$ $\left[ {60,100} \right)$ $\left[ {20,60} \right)$ $\left[ {0,20} \right)$
A3 高地应力 围岩强度应力比 $\left[ {0.45, + \infty } \right)$ $\left[ {0.28,0.45} \right)$ $\left[ {0.2,0.28} \right)$ $\left[ {0.14,0.2} \right)$ $\left[ {0,0.14} \right)$
A4 复合地层 横向地层复合比/% $\left[ {50,60} \right)$ $\left[ {60,70} \right)$ $\left[ {30,50} \right)$ $\left[ {0,30} \right)$ $\left[ {70, + \infty } \right)$
A5 断裂破碎带 破碎带宽度/m $\left[ {30, + \infty } \right)$ $\left[ {10,30} \right)$ $\left[ {5,10} \right)$ $\left[ {1,5} \right)$ $\left[ {0,1} \right)$
A6 围岩等级 纵波波速/(km·s−1 $\left[ {0,1.5} \right)$ $\left[ {1.5,2.5} \right)$ $\left[ {2.5,3.5} \right)$ $\left[ {3.5,4.5} \right)$ $\left[ {4.5, + \infty } \right)$
A7 隧道埋深 埋深/m $\left[ {0,\left( {2 \sim 3} \right){h_a}} \right)$ $\left[ {\left( {2 \sim 3} \right){h_a},500} \right)$ $\left[ {500, + \infty } \right)$
A8 平曲线半径 半径/mm $\left[ {0,350} \right)$ $\left[ {350,500} \right)$ $\left[ {500,600} \right)$ $\left[ {600, + \infty } \right)$
B2 开口率的设计 开口率/% $\left[ {0,k} \right)$ $k$ $\left[ {k,100} \right)$
C2 前期地质调查 勘测结果准确率/% $\left[ {0,55} \right)$ $\left[ {55,70} \right)$ $\left[ {70,80} \right)$ $\left[ {80,95} \right)$ $\left[ {95,100} \right)$