Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)
通信工程、自动化技术     
基于随机参数Gamma过程的剩余寿命预测方法
王浩伟1, 徐廷学1, 刘勇2
1. 海军航空工程学院 兵器科学与技术系,山东 烟台 264000；2. 海军航空工程学院 接改装训练大队，山东 烟台 264000
Remaining useful life prediction method based on Gamma processes with random parameters
WANG Hao-wei1, XU Ting-xue1, LIU Yong2
1. Department of Ordnance Science and Technology, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, YanTai 264000, China; 2. New Equipment Training Center, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, YanTai 264000, China
 全文: PDF(738 KB)   HTML
摘要：

为了提高剩余寿命预测的可信度,针对进行过加速老化试验的产品,提出利用Gamma过程参数的非共轭先验分布进行Bayesian统计推断的剩余寿命预测方法.将加速老化数据作为先验信息,利用Gamma过程进行老化建模,通过加速因子获得形状参数在工作应力下的折算值,使用Anderson-Darling 统计量确定随机参数的先验分布.将产品工作中的少量实测数据作为现场信息,利用基于Gibbs抽样的Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)仿真得到参数的后验均值.以某型导弹电连接器为例说明了该方法的研究意义和工程应用价值.
Abstract:

A method based on Bayesian inference with non-conjugate prior distributions of parameters of Gamma processes was proposed for the products which had gone through accelerated aging tests in order to improve the reliability of remaining useful life prediction. The accelerated aging data was considered as prior information and Gamma processes were utilized to model the aging data. After the transformed values of parameters at the normal working stress were obtained by acceleration factors, the Anderson-Darling statistic was applied to determine the prior distributions of two parameters. Few testing data at working was considered as field information, and the posterior means of parameters were obtained by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Gibbs sampling. The research significance and engineering value were demonstrated through a missile electrical connector.
出版日期: 2015-04-01
:  TB 114  
基金资助:

 国家自然科学基金资助项目（61273058）
通讯作者: 徐廷学, 男, 教授, 博导     E-mail: xtx-yt@163.com
作者简介: 王浩伟(1981—), 男, 博士生，从事武器装备可靠性评估的研究. E-mail: 13705355730@139.com
服务　　
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章　　

引用本文:

王浩伟, 徐廷学, 刘勇. 基于随机参数Gamma过程的剩余寿命预测方法[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2015.04.013.

WANG Hao-wei, XU Ting-xue, LIU Yong. Remaining useful life prediction method based on Gamma processes with random parameters. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2015.04.013.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2015.04.013    或    http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2015/V49/I4/699

［1］ NELSON W B. Analysis of performance: degradation data from accelerated tests ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1981, 30(2): 149-155.
［2］ 林瑞进,陈文华,刘娟,等.航天电连接器加速性能退化试验可行性研究［J］.工程设计学报,2010,17(4):318-320.
LIN Rui-jin, CHEN Wen-hua, LIU Juan, et al. Research on feasibility of accelerated degradation test for aerospace electrical connector ［J］. Journal of Engineering Design, 2010, 17(4): 318-320.
［3］ 葛蒸蒸,李晓阳,姜同敏.费用约束下含应力优化的CSADT设计［J］.北京航空航天大学学报,2011,37(10): 1277-1278.
GE Zheng-zheng, LI Xiao-yang, JIANG Tong-min. Planning of CSADT with stress optimization under cost constraint ［J］. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2011, 37(10): 1277-1278.
［4］ WANG X. Nonparametric estimation of the shape function in a Gamma process for degradation data ［J］. The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 2009, 37(1): 102-118.
［5］ TSAI C C, TSENG S T, BALAKRISHNAN N. Optimal design for degradation tests based on Gamma processes with random effects ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2012, 61(2): 604-613.
［6］ WANG X L, JIANG P, GUO B, et al. Real-time reliability evaluation for an individual product based on change-point Gamma and Wiener process ［J］. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2014, 30(4): 513-525.
［7］ VAN NOORTWIJK J M. A survey of the application of Gamma processes in maintenance ［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, 94(1): 221.
［8］ WANG H W, XU T X, MI Q L. Lifetime prediction based on Gamma processes from accelerated degradation data ［J］. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2015, 28(1): 172-179.
［9］ 周源泉,翁朝曦,叶喜涛.论加速系数与失效机理不变的条件(Ⅰ)：寿命型随机变量的情况［J］.系统工程与电子技术, 1996, 18(1): 55-66.
ZHOU Yuan-quan, WENG Chao-xi, YE Xi-tao. Study on accelerated factor and condition for constant failure mechanism ［J］. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 1996, 18(1): 55-66.
［10］ 杨宇航,周源泉.加速寿命试验的理论基础(Ⅰ)［J］.推进技术,2001, 22(4): 276-278.
YANG Yu-hang, ZHOU Yuan-quan. Theoretical foundation of accelerated life testing(Ⅰ) ［J］. Journal of Propulsion Technology, 2001, 22(4): 276-278.
［11］ 王浩伟,徐廷学,赵建忠.融合加速退化和现场实测退化数据的剩余寿命预测方法［J］.航空学报, 2014, 35(12): 3350-3357.
WANG Hao-wei, XU Ting-xue, ZHAO Jian-zhong. Residual life prediction method fusing accelerated degradation and field degradation data ［J］. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2014, 35(12): 3350-3357.
［12］ GRACE A W, WOOD I A. Approximating the tail of the Anderson-Darling distribution ［J］. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2012, 56(12): 4301-4311.
［13］ TSENG S T, BALAKRISHNAN N, TSAI C C. Optimal step-stress accelerated degradation test plan for Gamma degradation processes ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2009, 58(4): 611-618.
［14］ NTZOUFRAS I. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS ［M］. New York: Wiley, 2009: 1255.
［15］ 王浩伟,徐廷学,周伟.综合退化数据与寿命数据的某型电连接器寿命预测方法［J］.上海交通大学学报,2014, 48(5): 702-706.
WANG Hao-wei, XU Ting-xue, ZHOU Wei. Lifetime prediction method for missile electrical connector synthesizing degradation data and lifetime data ［J］. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2014, 48(5): 702-706.
[1] 孙晓燕, 王龙威, 王海龙, 张治成. 基于模型试验的FRP加固钢筋砼梁抗弯疲劳性能预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2014, 48(12): 2230-2237.
[2] 孙晓燕, 姚晨纯, 王海龙, 张治成. 基于3D有限元的FRP筋夹片式锚具参数影响分析[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2014, 48(6): 1058-1067.
[3] 潘竹生, 莫毓昌. 冗余可修系统的可靠性分析[J]. J4, 2013, 47(4): 644-649.
[4] 孙晓燕, 潘宏, 王海龙, 王建秀. 大气环境下服役公路梁桥结构时变可靠度分析[J]. J4, 2012, 46(4): 643-649.
[5] 王晓暾，熊伟. 基于DLOWG算子的FMEA风险评估方法[J]. J4, 2012, 46(1): 182-188.
[6] 莫毓昌, 杨全胜. 故障树随机生成及变量排序[J]. J4, 2011, 45(9): 1539-1543.
[7] 邵煜, 虞介泽, 俞亭超. 埋地管线均匀腐蚀失效力学模型及随机分析[J]. J4, 2010, 44(6): 1225-1230.
[8] 张惠峰, 关富玲, 侯国勇. 考虑扭簧失效的桁架式可展开天线可靠性研究[J]. J4, 2010, 44(6): 1207-1212.
[9] 邵煜, 张土乔, 俞亭超. 考虑腐蚀的埋地灰口铸铁管失效预测及可靠度分析[J]. J4, 2010, 44(1): 160-165.
[10] 寿涌毅, 傅奥. 多目标资源受限项目调度的多种群蚁群算法[J]. J4, 2010, 44(1): 51-55.