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| A hybrid short-term load forecasting method based on improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition and back propagation neural network |
| Yun-luo Yu, Wei Li, De-ren Sheng, Jian-hong Chen |
| Institute of Thermal Science and Power System, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China |
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Abstract Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a very important role in improving the economy and security of electricity system operations. In this paper, a hybrid STLF method is proposed based on the improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition (IEEMD) and back propagation neural network (BPNN). To alleviate the mode mixing and end-effect problems in traditional empirical mode decomposition (EMD), an IEEMD is presented based on the degree of wave similarity. By applying the IEEMD method, the nonlinear and nonstationary original load series is decomposed into a finite number of stationary intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual. Among these components, the high frequency (namely IMF1) is always so small that it has little contribution to model fitting, while it sometimes has a great disturbance for the STLF. Therefore, the IMF1 is removed in the proposed hybrid method for denoising. The remaining IMFs and residual are forecast by BPNN, and then the forecasting results of each component are combined with BPNN to obtain the final predicted load series. Three groups of studies were done to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method. The results show that the proposed hybrid method outperforms other methods both mentioned in this paper and previous studies in terms of all the three standard statistical indicators considered in this study.
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Received: 29 May 2015
Published: 02 February 2016
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