传染病的多尺度时空特征分析——以杭州市淋病、细菌性痢疾和流行性腮腺炎为例

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2018.05.013

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摘要针对目前传染病时空分析中存在时间尺度单一的问题，提出一种面向多尺度的传染病时空分析框架.该框架综合利用自组织神经网络、核密度估计和时空扫描统计量等模型方法，从年份、季节、月份多个尺度对杭州市2006-2013年淋病、细菌性痢疾和流行性腮腺炎的时空分布特征进行了系统分析.结果表明，在人口密度高的辖区，3类传染病发病率年际变化明显，总体呈逐年下降趋势，而在人口稀疏的区县，发病率处于较低水平；各类传染病均具有明显的时空聚集性，各季节疾病高发区主要集中在杭州主城区，淋病的发病热度值无明显季节性差异，细菌性痢疾表现为夏、秋高发，冬、春低发，流行性腮腺炎则相反；淋病的时空聚类在月份分布上较分散，而细菌性痢疾的聚集时间多为每年的6-11月，流行性腮腺炎则为12月至次年5月.

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	郑嘉丽
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	刘尧

关键词 ：淋病, 细菌性痢疾, 流行性腮腺炎, 时空特征, 多尺度分析, 杭州市

Abstract：Spatial-temporal analysis on infectious diseases is crucial for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. However, existing related studies are still in an early exploratory stage and few of them consider the multiple temporal scales. To solve the problem, this paper proposes a multi-scale spatial-temporal analytical framework for systematically analyzing the spatial-temporal distribution patterns of infectious diseases at multiple temporal scales (year, season and month), by integrating the models of self-organizing map, kernel density estimation and space-time scan statistic. This framework is applied to analyze the data about gonorrhea, bacillary dysentery and mumps collected in Hangzhou from 2006 to 2013. The results show that the incidences of the three types of infectious diseases exhibit remarkable inter-annual variations and decrease gradually during the time period in the districts with high population density, but remain stable at a low level in the sparsely populated areas. Evidently, different types of diseases present spatial-temporal aggregation and most of cases are concentrated in main urban districts of Hangzhou for different seasons. There is no remarkable seasonal variation regarding the density of gonorrhea. Bacillary dysentery shows a relatively higher density in summer and autumn but a lower occurrence rate in winter and spring. The seasonal distribution characteristics of mumps are contrary to those of bacillary dysentery. The spatial-temporal clusters of gonorrhea incidence are scattered, whereas those of bacillary dysentery and mumps mainly occur during June to November and December to May, respectively. This paper systematically analyzes the spatial-temporal patterns of infectious diseases from macro-to micro-level. The conclusion drawn from this research will provide more scientific and sound references for effective prevention and control of infectious diseases and optimal allocation of resources. Furthermore, the proposed spatial-temporal data analytical framework will provide a new perspective for exploration of spatial-temporal characteristics of infectious diseases.

Key words： gonorrhea bacillary dysentery mumps spatial-temporalcharacteristics multi-scale analysis Hangzhou city

收稿日期: 2017-12-07

ZTFLH:

P936

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（41471313，41671391）；浙江省公益性科研专项（2014C33G20，2013C33051）；国家测绘局公益性行业科研专项（201512024）；浙江省科学技术厅2015年度省级公益性技术应用研究计划项目（2015C33052）.

通讯作者: 杜震洪,ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9449-0415,E-mail:duzhenhong@zju.edu.cn E-mail: duzhenhong@zju.edu.cn

作者简介: 郑嘉丽(1992-),ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1899-4299,女,硕士研究生,主要从事时空数据建模和WebGIS应用研究.

引用本文:

郑嘉丽, 张丰, 杜震洪, 来丽芳, 刘仁义, 刘尧. 传染病的多尺度时空特征分析——以杭州市淋病、细菌性痢疾和流行性腮腺炎为例[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2018, 45(5): 605-616.
ZHENG Jiali, ZHANG Feng, DU Zhenhong, LAI Lifang, LIU Renyi, LIU Yao. Multi-scale analysis of spatial-temporal characteristics of infectious diseases: A case study on gonorrhea, bacillary dysentery and mumps in Hangzhou. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2018, 45(5): 605-616.

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http://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2018.05.013 或 http://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2018/V45/I5/605

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