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浙江大学学报（理学版）
浙江大学学报（理学版）  2017, Vol. 44 Issue (6): 749-756    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.06.015
城市科学     
基于模糊德尔菲法的历史文化名城保护规划实施评价研究
董文丽, 祝立雄, 李王鸣
浙江大学 建筑工程学院, 浙江 杭州 310058
Research on the assessment of historic city conservation planning implementation based on fuzzy Delphi method
DONG Wenli, ZHU Lixiong, LI Wangming
College of Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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摘要： 我国历史文化名城保护规划实施评价的内容体系和标准体系具有双重复杂性，在实际工程评价方法上主要依赖经验判断，在评价标准上仍缺乏客观性度量及居民反馈测度，且缺乏具有可操作性的模型建构方法.需要采用合理的数理统计方法对多准则决策法进行优化，建立一套全面而简明的规划实施评价的内容体系和指标体系，为提高名城评价体系的系统性和可操作性提供思路.为此，首先建立了历史文化名城保护规划实施评价的研究思路和框架，而后基于模糊德尔菲法（FDM）分别优化了评价内容体系和评价标准体系，得到了简化后的历史文化名城保护规划实施评价研究的框架体系和标准体系，可为我国历史文化名城保护规划的实施、修编或重编提供依据.
关键词： 规划实施评价;  历史文化名城保护规划;  城市规划后评价;  模糊德尔菲法    
Abstract: The current researches on the post-hoc evaluation on the implementation of historic city conservation planning in China confront dual complexity in their evaluation framework and criteria. Their evaluation methods are primarily based on experimentalism and qualitative descriptions, while the criteria lack subjective measurements, as well as the assessment of the feedbacks from citizens. Moreover, a feasible modelling method is needed for the establishment of a robust and feasible evaluation framework. It requires the utilization of a proper statistic method to refine the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method which are mostly adopted in urban planning implementation assessment. This paper aims to develop a methodology framework for the assessment of historic city conservation planning implementation in China, which can deal with the complexity and feasibility of the post-hoc evaluation. The initiative evaluation framework and a set of standards are primarily established. The framework is built based on the spatial-temporal dimension, the development stages and implementation mechanism. The evaluation standards cover both quantitative and qualitative indexes, as well as feedback survey. Then, each constitution and criteria for evaluation are simplified based on fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). The refined evaluation framework is estimated to provide references for the implementation, revision and re-formulation of historic city conservation planning.
Key words: assessment of urban planning implementation    historic city conservation planning    post-hoc evaluation of planning    fuzzy Delphi method (FDM)
收稿日期: 2017-03-31 出版日期: 2018-04-09
CLC:  TU984.11+1  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目（51508499）；浙江省“钱江人才计划”C类项目（QJC1502003）；浙江省自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目（LQ16E080004）；教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金项目（J20150130）.
通讯作者: 祝立雄,ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4217-3829,E-mail:zhulixiong 2004@126.com.     E-mail: zhulixiong 2004@126.com
作者简介: 董文丽(1984-),ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4603-6212,女,博士,讲师,主要从事城市规划评估和城市更新研究,E-mail:wenlidong@zju.edu.cn.
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引用本文:

董文丽, 祝立雄, 李王鸣. 基于模糊德尔菲法的历史文化名城保护规划实施评价研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(6): 749-756.

DONG Wenli, ZHU Lixiong, LI Wangming. Research on the assessment of historic city conservation planning implementation based on fuzzy Delphi method. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2017, 44(6): 749-756.

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https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.06.015    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2017/V44/I6/749

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