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浙江大学学报（理学版）
浙江大学学报（理学版）  2017, Vol. 44 Issue (1): 97-105    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.01.014
地球科学     
云贵地区气象旱涝的气候响应特征
芦佳玉, 延军平, 王文静, 唐宝琪, 刘永林
陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710062
Drought-flood response characteristics to the climate in Yun-Gui area
LU Jiayu, YAN Junping, WANG Wenjing, TANG Baoqi, LIU Yonglin
College of Tourism and Environmental, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China
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摘要： 根据1960~2014年云贵地区49个站点的逐月降水量和气温资料，利用标准化降水指数、Mann-Kendall突变检验及小波分析等方法研究了季尺度和年尺度的气温和降水量的变化特征及旱涝演变趋势.结果表明：（1）1960~2014年云贵地区气温呈明显上升趋势，且上升速率冬季 > 秋季 > 春季 > 夏季，1997年出现了气温突变现象.（2）降水量呈下降趋势，其中，秋季降水量下降最快，冬季最慢，且降水呈现14 a和28 a的周期变化.（3）1960~2014年云贵地区呈现偏旱的趋势，且夏秋两季干旱趋势较为明显.（4）从空间尺度分析，云贵地区整体上趋于干旱（SPI倾向率小于0），在云南与贵州交界处，偏旱现象较为严重，仅在云南省北部出现偏湿现象.因此近55 a云贵地区气候呈暖干化趋势.
关键词： 气候变化;  气候旱涝;  标准化降水指数;  云贵地区    
Abstract: According to the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 49 sites in Yun-Gui area from 1960 to 2014, this paper uses standardized precipitation index, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis method to study the changes in seasonal scale and the year scale of temperature and precipitation characteristics, as well as the drought evolution trend. The results show that:(1)The temperature gradually increased from 1960 to 2014. The temperature rise rate of winter was the largest. The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1997. (2) The precipitation was decreasing; The fastest decline in autumn, and the slowest in winter; The precipitation presents 14 a and 28 a cycle.(3) Yun-Gui area presented a droughty trend from 1960 to 2014. The summer and autumn drought appeared as an obvious trend. (4)The climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming drought (SPI trend rate was less than 0), and is more seriously at the junction of Yunnan and Guizhou province, while, only the Northern Yunnan rigion becomes wetting. So the climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming warmer and drier in recent 55 years.
Key words: climate change    drought and flood    standardized precipitation index(SPI)    Yun-Gui area
收稿日期: 2016-01-05 出版日期: 2017-01-22
CLC:  P467  
基金资助: 国家社会科学基金重点项目（14AZD094）；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目（15JJD7900220）
通讯作者: 延军平,ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3983-198X,E-mail:yanjp@snnu.edu.cn     E-mail: yanjp@snnu.edu.cn
作者简介: 芦佳玉(1992-),ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3909-1830,女,硕士研究生,主要从事区域开发与城乡发展等研究,E-mail:enjiayu123@163.com.
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引用本文:

芦佳玉, 延军平, 王文静, 唐宝琪, 刘永林. 云贵地区气象旱涝的气候响应特征[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(1): 97-105.

LU Jiayu, YAN Junping, WANG Wenjing, TANG Baoqi, LIU Yonglin. Drought-flood response characteristics to the climate in Yun-Gui area. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2017, 44(1): 97-105.

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https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.01.014    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2017/V44/I1/97

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