Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报（理学版）
浙江大学学报（理学版）  2016, Vol. 43 Issue (5): 610-614    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2016.05.019
环境科学     
基于Kaya扩展的浙江能耗氮排放及其影响因素研究
吕越1,2, 陈忠清1,2
1. 绍兴文理学院 土木工程学院, 浙江 绍兴 312000;
2. 绍兴文理学院 岩石力学与地质灾害实验中心, 浙江 绍兴 312000
A study on the energy consumption nitrogen emission and its influence factors based on the expand Kaya in Zhejiang Province
LYU Yue1,2, CHEN Zhongqing1,2
1. School of Civil Engineering, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, Zhejiang Province, China;
2. Centre of Rock Mechanics and Geological Disaster, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, Zhejiang Province, China
 全文: PDF(1058 KB)  
摘要： 将1980~2014年浙江省天然能耗氮排放过程分为3个阶段：1980~1990，1991~2000，2001~2014，采用Kaya扩展恒等式并结合LMDIM，研究了1980~2014年浙江省天然能耗氮排放的主要推动因子.并通过分析1980年以来浙江省社会经济发展趋势和排氮量变化特征，定量分析了经济产出、人口规模、能源强度、能源结构和能源替代效应分别在3个阶段的贡献.得到：（1）氮排放增长的首要正影响因子为经济产出，其次为人口规模.（2）改革开放以来，能耗强度的降低抑制了氮排放，能源强度为负效应.（3）能源结构效应和能源替代效应也为负效应，但在第3阶段，二者均由负效应转变为正效应.
关键词： 能耗;  氮排放;  影响因素;  浙江省    
Abstract: This paper divides the nitrogen emission process in Zhejiang Province during 1980 to 2014 into three stages：1980-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2014, and adopts the logarithmic mean division index model (LMDIM) combined with expand Kaya identity to study the main driving factors of natural energy consumption nitrogen emission in Zhejiang Province during 1980 to 2014. It analyises quantitatively the effect of economic, population, energy intensity, energy structure and energy substitution effect in the different stages of the process. The results show that (1) Economic effect is the primary positive contributor to nitrogen emission growth, and followed by the population effect. (2) The decrease of energy consumption intensity inhibits the growth rate of nitrogen emissions, hence leading to a negative effect since the time of reform and opening policy. (3) The negative contributors also include the energy structure and energy substitution effect, but both of them become positive contributors in the third stage.
Key words: energy consumption    nitrogen emission    influence factors    Zhejiang Province
收稿日期: 2015-11-29 出版日期: 2016-05-01
CLC:  F230  
基金资助: 绍兴市公益技术应用研究计划项目（2015B70034，2015B70035）；绍兴文理学院科研启动项目（20145013，20155010）.
通讯作者: 陈忠清,ORCID:http//orcid.org/0000-0002-8672-0329,E-mail:chenzq@usx.edu.cn.     E-mail: chenzq@usx.edu.cn
作者简介: 吕越(1982-),ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6505-6422,女,博士,讲师,主要从事生态环境与可持续发展研究,E-mail:53048830@qq.com.
服务　　
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章　　
吕越
陈忠清

引用本文:

吕越, 陈忠清. 基于Kaya扩展的浙江能耗氮排放及其影响因素研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2016, 43(5): 610-614.

LYU Yue, CHEN Zhongqing. A study on the energy consumption nitrogen emission and its influence factors based on the expand Kaya in Zhejiang Province. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2016, 43(5): 610-614.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2016.05.019    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2016/V43/I5/610

[1] LEACH A M, GALLOWAY J N, BLEEKER A, et al. A nitrogen footprint model to help consumers understand their role in nitrogen losses to the environment [J].Environmental Development, 2012,1(1):40-66.
[2] 蓝艳,陈刚,彭宁.以环境标准推动技术创新迈向生态创新[J].环境与可持续发展,2015,40(5):30-34. LAN Yan, CHEN Gang, PENG Ning. Spurring technical innovation with environment standards: A way towards ecological innovation [J]. Environment and Sustainable Development,2015,40(5):30-34.
[3] 冼超凡,欧阳志云.城市生态系统氮代谢研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(9):2548-2557. XIAN Chaofan, OUYANG Zhiyun. Urban ecosystem nitrogen metabolism: research progress [J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology,2014,33(9):2548-2557.
[4] 周赛军,邓明君,罗文兵.氮足迹核算研究最新进展[J].浙江农业科学,2015,56(6):915-920. ZHOU Saijun, DENG Mingjun, LUO Wenbin. Research progress on nitrogen footprint calculation[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Agricultural Sciences,2015,56(6):915-920.
[5] 马文静,张承中,韩德明,等.西安城区夏季地面臭氧浓度变化特征分析[J].环境工程,2015,33(10):47-49,65. MA Wenjing, ZHANG Chengzhong, HAN Deming, et al. Analysis on variation characteristics of surface ozone concentration in urban area of Xi'an in summer[J]. Environmental Engineering,2015,33(10):47-49,65.
[6] GU B J, DONG X L, PENG C H, et al. The long-term impact of urbanization on nitrogen patterns and dynamics in Shanghai, China [J]. Environmental Pollution,2012,171(1):30-37.
[7] HOLST J, LIU C, YAO Z, et al. Importance of point sources on regional nitrous oxide fluxes in semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia, China [J]. Plant and Soil,2007,296(1):209-226.
[8] CUI S H, SHI Y L, GROFFMANB P M, et al. Centennial-scale analysis of the creation and fate of reactive nitrogen in China(1910-2010) [J]. Proceeding of the National Academy Sciences of the United States of America, 2013,110(6):2052-2057.
[9] HAN Y G, LI X Y, NAN Z. Net anthropoid nitrogen accumulation in the Beijing metropolitan region [J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International,2001,18(3):485-496.
[10] 高群,余成.城市化进程对氮循环格局及动态的影响研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(6):726-738. GAO Qun, YU Cheng. A review of urbanization impact on nitrogen cycle [J]. Progress in Geography, 2015,34(6):726-738.
[11] 王丽琼.基于探索性空间分析的中国氮氧化物排放强度研究[J].生态环境学报.2013,22(3):494-497. WANG Liqiong. Study NOx emission intensity of China based on an exploratory spatial data analysis [J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2013,22(3):494-497.
[12] BROOK J R, BURNETT R T, DANN T F, et al. Further interpretation of the acute effect of nitrogen dioxide observed in Canadian time-series studies [J]. Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, 2008,17(S2):36-44.
[13] 施亚岚,崔胜辉,许肃,等.需求视角的中国能源消费氮氧化物排放研究[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(10):2684-2692. SHI Yalan, CUI Shenghui, XU Su, et al. Nitrogen oxide emission energy consumption in China from a consumption-based perspective [J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiate, 2014,34(10):2684-2692.
[14] LIN J T, MCELROY M B, BOERSMA K F. Constraint of anthropogenic NOx emissions in China from different sectors: A new methodology using multiple satellite retrievals [J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010,10(186):63-78.
[15] 吉木色.基于情景分析的城市大气污染物减排潜力研究[J].环境与可持续发展,2015,40(5):102-105. JI Muse. Based on the scenario analysis of atmospheric pollutants emission reduction potential research [J]. Environment and Sustainable Development, 2015,40(5):102-105.
[16] 张艳芳,位贺杰.基于生态平衡视角的浙江碳通量时空演变分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(4):777-783. ZHANG Yanfang, WEI Hejie. Space-time evolvement of carbon flux in Zhejiang Province based on the ecological balance perspective [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2015,32(4):777-783.
[17] LAWRENCE A B, DIANE H, XU Y, et al. Nitrogen balance for the central Arizona-phoenix (CAP) ecosystem [J]. Ecosystems, 2001,4(6):582-602.
[18] AKIMOTO H, NARITA H. Distribution of SO2,NO,and CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and industrial activities in Asia with l°×l°resolution [J]. Atmos Environ, 1994,28(2):213-225.
[19]
[1] 葛丹东,郑艳艳,童磊. 基于POI数据挖掘的浙江省乡村旅游产业空间分异与影响因素研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2023, 50(4): 483-494.
[2] 张建行,陈定云,雷祖培,李宏庆. 浙江省被子植物新资料[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2023, 50(3): 360-366.
[3] 张坤,张宏伟,张豪,梅旭东,马丹丹,金水虎. 浙江省石松类和蕨类植物的物种多样性研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2023, 50(2): 195-203.
[4] 戴豪成,冯友建. 基于空间计量模型的商铺租金影响因素空间异质性分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2023, 50(1): 96-107.
[5] 朱相君,薛亮. 陕甘宁革命老区生态系统服务价值时空分异及影响因素研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2022, 49(4): 498-507.
[6] 杨昀则,田鹏,李加林,曹罗丹,张海涛,艾顺毅. 浙江省水域系统时空变化特征及驱动力分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2022, 49(4): 508-520.
[7] 刘瑞, 朱佩君, 翟国庆. 基于ISCCP数据集的梅雨期影响浙江省及周边地区的对流系统特征分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2021, 48(6): 728-734.
[8] 冯翠翠, 叶观琼, 曾江宁, 林颖, 朱静. 浙江省海洋生态文明建设绩效评估研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2021, 48(5): 584-591.
[9] 徐婷婷, 李钢, 高兴, 王皎贝, 王钰, 张千禧. 浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情时空演化与影响因素分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2021, 48(3): 356-367.
[10] 张小东, 韩昊英, 陈宇, 李献灿, 罗国娜. 我国医院空间布局特点及其影响因素分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2021, 48(1): 84-92.
[11] 韩佳祥, 陈瑛. 浙江省对美投资民营企业的时空格局演变及其影响因素[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2020, 47(3): 370-379.
[12] 徐跃良, 鲁益飞. 中国菊科植物拾零[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2019, 46(2): 209-214.
[13] 何月峰, 李文洁, 陈佳, 卢瑛莹. 浙江省“五水共治”决策前后水环境安全评估预警[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2018, 45(2): 234-241.
[14] 秦汉, 张丰, 杜震洪, 刘仁义. 基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的浙江省城镇发展评价[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(6): 640-648.
[15] 刘西, 郑方东, 张芬耀, 林莉斯, 叶喜阳. 发现于泰顺的5种浙江新记录植物[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(2): 198-200.