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J Zhejiang Univ (Med Sci)  2018, Vol. 47 Issue (4): 367-373    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2018.08.07
    
Incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan, Zhejiang province: trend analysis from 1987 to 2016 and projection from 2017 to 2019
LI Chen1(),ZHU Yao2(),YANG Jinhua3,XU Dongsheng1,WANG Jianbing2,CHEN Kun2,*(),LI Qilong3()
1. Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiashan County, Jiaxing 314100, Zhejiang Province, China
2. School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
3. Cancer Institute of Jiashan County, Jiaxing 314100, Zhejiang Province, China
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Abstract  

Objective: To predict the incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan county from 2017 to 2019 on the basis of the incidence rates of lung cancer during 1987-2016. Methods: Lung cancer incident cases were derived from cancer registry system of Jiashan. Crude incidence, age-standardized incidence rate by the Chinese standard population (ASR China) and the world standard population (ASR world) were calculated. Annual percent change (APC) was used to examine the temporal trend, and the autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA) of time series model was used to predict the incidence rates from 2017 to 2019. Results: There were 6103 lung cancer incident cases during 1987-2016 in Jiashan county. Averagely, the crude incidence rate, ASR China and ASR world were 53.77/105, 25.24/105 and 34.15/105, respectively. The crude incidence rate, ASR China and ASR world in male were 78.30/105, 34.77/105 and 51.87/105, which were higher than those in female (29.15/105, 14.31/105 and 17.99/105). Crude incidence rate increased from 27.58/105 in 1987 to 111.24/105 in 2016, and the APC was 5.28%. Crude incidence rate predicted by ARIMA model from 2017 to 2019 would be 135.64/105, 145.97/105 and 152.63/105, and the predicted crude incidence rate for 2017 was close to the real incidence rate in 2017 (135.95/105). Conclusion: The incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan has been increased dramatically over the past 30 years and will continue to increase in the future.



Key wordsLung neoplasms/epidemiology      Incidence      Forecasting      Zhejiang/epidemiology     
Received: 11 May 2018      Published: 04 December 2018
CLC:  R734.2  
  R181  
Corresponding Authors: CHEN Kun     E-mail: 472944185@qq.com;21718617@zju.edu.cn;ck@zju.edu.cn;lql1642396@qq.com
Cite this article:

LI Chen,ZHU Yao,YANG Jinhua,XU Dongsheng,WANG Jianbing,CHEN Kun,LI Qilong. Incidence of lung cancer in Jiashan, Zhejiang province: trend analysis from 1987 to 2016 and projection from 2017 to 2019. J Zhejiang Univ (Med Sci), 2018, 47(4): 367-373.

URL:

http://www.zjujournals.com/med/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2018.08.07     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/med/Y2018/V47/I4/367


浙江省嘉善县三十年肺癌发病趋势研究

目的: 了解浙江省嘉善县1987-2016年肺癌发生情况及变化趋势,并预测2017-2019年的发病情况,为肺癌防治提供科学依据。方法: 利用嘉善县肿瘤登记报告系统中1987-2016年肺癌患者的资料,计算肺癌粗发病率、中国人口标准化发病率(中标率)和世界人口标准化发病率(世标率),用年度变化百分比(APC)评估发病率的时间变化趋势,并用时间序列分析方法中的ARIMA模型预测2017-2019年肺癌的发病率。结果: 1987-2016年嘉善县肺癌新发病例6103例,粗发病率为53.77/10万,中标率和世标率分别为25.24/10万和34.15/10万,男性(粗发病率为78.30/10万,中标率为34.77/10万,世标率为51.87/10万)高于女性(粗发病率为29.15/10万,中标率为14.31/10万,世标率为17.99/10万)。1987-2016年嘉善县肺癌发病率呈上升趋势,从1987年的27.58/10万上升到2016年的111.24/10万,APC为5.28%。ARIMA模型预测2017、2018、2019年发病率分别为135.64/10万、145.97/10万和152.63/10万,其中2017年发病率预测值与实际值(135.95/10万)较吻合。结论: 1987-2016年浙江省嘉善县肺癌发病率呈上升趋势,预计2017-2019年肺癌发病率会进一步上升。


关键词: 肺肿瘤/流行病学,  发病率,  预测,  浙江/流行病学 
年份 男性 女性 合计
发病例数 发病率
(1/10万)
中标率
(1/10万)
世标率
(1/10万)
发病例数 发病率(1/10万) 中标率(1/10万) 世标率(1/10万) 发病例数 发病率(1/10万) 中标率(1/10万) 世标率(1/10万)
“—”:无相关数据.中标率:中国人口标准化发病率;世标率:世界人口标准化发病率;APC:年度变化百分比.
1987 81 44.38 33.29 45.79 18 10.20 8.90 10.39 99 27.58 21.26 27.24
1988 70 38.11 27.12 40.27 29 16.31 11.68 14.04 99 27.39 19.51 25.90
1989 73 39.54 27.32 36.70 24 13.38 9.11 11.64 97 26.65 18.49 24.43
1990 74 39.84 27.23 40.02 32 17.70 12.44 15.77 106 28.92 19.97 27.04
1991 78 41.78 27.74 39.43 20 10.99 7.19 9.09 98 26.58 17.66 23.69
1992 91 48.34 31.64 44.03 31 16.86 11.40 14.17 122 32.79 21.82 28.78
1993 76 40.18 25.13 37.20 19 10.28 7.34 9.12 95 25.41 16.36 21.87
1994 71 37.36 22.39 32.79 23 12.39 7.86 9.94 94 25.02 15.33 20.63
1995 100 52.35 32.18 46.20 25 13.40 8.18 10.37 125 33.11 20.58 27.63
1996 106 55.32 32.25 47.52 36 19.23 11.33 14.17 142 37.49 22.19 29.95
1997 129 67.11 38.47 55.27 27 14.39 8.30 10.57 156 41.07 23.90 32.23
1998 111 57.68 32.28 48.25 33 17.52 9.88 12.00 144 37.82 21.54 29.34
1999 107 55.68 29.88 44.20 41 21.76 12.29 15.70 148 38.89 21.40 28.98
2000 116 60.65 30.78 43.45 35 18.42 10.20 12.57 151 39.60 21.12 27.80
2001 142 74.28 36.74 54.62 31 16.31 8.78 11.02 173 45.39 23.43 31.65
2002 122 63.89 31.01 46.29 39 20.53 11.13 13.99 161 42.27 21.60 29.03
2003 152 80.05 34.93 51.70 53 27.79 13.77 17.32 205 53.86 25.12 34.00
2004 165 86.99 36.20 54.21 45 23.60 10.47 13.23 210 55.21 24.37 33.31
2005 182 96.32 39.59 58.19 58 30.52 13.73 16.61 240 63.32 27.76 37.36
2006 165 86.88 35.66 53.36 57 29.86 12.90 16.08 222 58.30 25.18 34.15
2007 197 103.88 39.31 59.88 63 32.92 14.10 17.40 260 68.24 27.86 37.81
2008 213 112.31 40.53 60.02 61 31.77 13.03 16.16 274 71.79 28.01 37.71
2009 208 109.65 38.94 59.31 63 32.68 12.85 16.62 271 70.85 27.19 37.45
2010 212 111.67 37.49 56.85 75 38.73 15.23 19.15 287 74.84 27.52 37.57
2011 214 112.55 36.75 54.46 85 43.69 16.67 21.17 299 77.73 27.89 37.85
2012 209 109.76 32.23 49.30 79 40.47 14.43 18.13 288 74.68 24.31 33.12
2013 225 118.11 35.11 53.63 95 48.55 17.49 21.71 320 82.86 27.54 37.25
2014 236 123.74 36.78 55.26 135 68.79 25.24 31.25 371 95.87 32.04 43.09
2015 264 138.31 37.64 58.71 150 76.27 28.89 36.10 414 106.83 34.50 46.81
2016 262 137.04 38.30 56.79 170 86.22 32.42 41.17 432 111.24 36.62 48.93
APC(%) 4.93 1.22 1.49 6.42 3.44 3.49 5.28 2.04 2.13
95% CI 4.45~5.41 0.74~1.69 1.03~1.95 5.41~7.43 2.41~4.46 2.48~4.50 4.81~5.75 1.58~2.50 1.69~2.58
Tab 1 The incidence and the standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in Jiashan, Zhejiang province during 1987—2016
Fig 1 The incidence rate and stardarized rate of lung cancer in Jiashan, Zhejiang province during 1987—2016
Fig 2 The incidence rate of lung cancer by age-group in Jiashan, Zhejiang province during 1987—2016
Fig 3 Average age of the incidence of lung caner in Jiashan, Zhejiang province during 1987—2016
年龄段(岁) 差分阶数 ADF检验P ARIMA模型参数值(q, d, p) Ljung-Box检验P发病率预测值(/10万)
2017年(95%CI) 2018年(95%CI) 2019年(95%CI)
“—”无相关数据.ADF检验:增广迪基-富基勒检验;ARIMA模型:自回归积分滑动平均模型.
0~<30 1 0.010 0, 1, 0 0.17 0.94(-0.67~1.04) 0.94(-0.47~2.35) 0.94(-0.79~2.66)
30~<40 0 0.010 0, 0, 0 0.43 3.77(-1.56~9.09) 3.77(-1.56~9.09) 3.77(-1.56~9.09)
40~<50 1 0.026 0, 1, 1 0.98 27.92(12.73~43.10) 27.92(12.15~43.68) 27.92(11.59~44.25)
50~<60 1 0.038 0, 1, 0 0.01 95.23(44.10~93.84) 95.23(51.57~138.87) 95.23(41.76~148.68)
60~<70 1 0.086 0, 1, 0 0.08 251.58(190.40~312.78) 251.58(165.06~338.12) 251.58(145.61~357.56)
70~<80 1 0.083 1, 1, 0 0.64 403.25(308.79~497.70) 410.52(299.46~521.57) 410.52(275.30~540.18)
≥80 1 0.011 2, 1, 1 0.78 425.99(374.21~567.15) 448.67(359.65~537.85) 448.67(363.42~546.88)
合计 135.64 145.97 152.63
Tab 2 The ARIMA model predicted incidence rate of lung cancer in Jiashan, Zhejiang Province
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