J Zhejiang Univ (Med Sci)  2021, Vol. 50 Issue (1): 41-51    DOI: 10.3724/zdxbyxb-2021-0035
Exploring early prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis
DONG Shi1(),CUI Zhiwei2,*(),PAN Xiaoxiong2,WANG Jianwei1,GAO Chao1
1. College of Transportation Engineering，Chang’an University，Xi’an 710064，China;
2. School of Economics and Management，Chang’an University，Xi’an 710064，China

Abstract

Objective: To explore early prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 （COVID-19） outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis. Methods:The data of early outbreak of COVID-19 were collected from the World Health Organization，covering countries of the China，United States，United Kingdom，Australia，Serbia and Italy. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered （SEIR） model was generalized and then its parameters were optimized. According to the parameters in the basic infection number expression，the sensitivity in the system dynamics model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the protection rate，infection rate and average quarantine time on the early spread of the outbreak. Based on the analysis results，targeted prevention and control measures for the early outbreak of COVID-19 were proposed. Results:The generalized SEIR model had a good fit for the early prediction and evaluation of COVID-19 outbreaks in six countries. The spread of COVID-19 was mainly affected by the protection rate，infection rate and average quarantine time. The improvement of the protection rate in the first 10?days was the most important:the greater the protection rate，the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The infection rate in the first 5 days was the most critical:the smaller the infection rate，the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The average quarantine time in the first 5 days was very important:the shorter the average quarantine time，the fewer the number of confirmed cases. Through the comparison of key parameters of six countries，Australia and China had implemented strict epidemic prevention policies，which had resulted in good epidemic prevention effects. Conclusion:In the early stage of the outbreak，it is necessary to improve the protection rate，shorten the average quarantine time，and implement strict isolation policies to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Received: 17 August 2020      Published: 16 May 2021
 CLC: R181.2 R181.2 A
Corresponding Authors: CUI Zhiwei     E-mail: dongshi@chd.edu.cn;2019223026@chd.edu.cn