Abstract In recent years, human lifespan is extended obviously, which has an impact on national pension system and insurance company’s life insurance business. Longevity risk is caused by unexpected changes in population mortality, so accurate prediction of population mortality is an important topic of longevity research. This paper proposes a new method by introducing the co-integration theory of econometrics to the prediction of mortality to make up for China’s lack of historical data, by using the extreme value theory to predict unstable time factors in Lee Carter model.
ZHANG Yi, WANG Ting-ting. China’s population mortality prediction based on the cointegration theory . Applied Mathematics A Journal of Chinese Universities, 2015, 30(1): 1-9.
